Primera División · Clausura - 14
Cienciano vs Atletico Grau
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Cienciano host Atletico Grau on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cienciano 47%, draw 28%, Atletico Grau 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cienciano €297K, Atletico Grau €248K.
- All 11 of Cienciano's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cienciano goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Cienciano 1608 · Atletico Grau 1502
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cienciano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Average) · Elo 1684
Atletico Grau · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1543
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cienciano
5th in Primera División · 47 pts from 29
- 18 OctWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1587
- 8 OctWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1581
- 30 SepDClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1613
- 23 SepLADT Peru Primera Division1619
- 18 SepLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana1635
Atletico Grau
13th in Primera División · 33 pts from 29
- 18 OctLAlianza Lima Peru Primera Division1503
- 8 OctDClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1478
- 19 SepLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1504
- 13 SepWAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1505
- 6 SepLDeportivo Garcilaso Peru Primera Division1515
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 47 /29 | 53.8 | 0% | 21% | 0% | 5th |
| Atletico Grau | 33 /29 | 39.0 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cienciano: balanced profile (how Horacio Melgarejo plays) · Atletico Grau: balanced profile (how Gerardo Pablo Ameli plays)