J1 League · Regular Season - 12
Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
Cerezo Osaka host JEF United Chiba on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cerezo Osaka 54%, draw 26%, JEF United Chiba 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cerezo Osaka €619K, JEF United Chiba €375K.
- JEF United Chiba's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Cerezo Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cerezo Osaka goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Cerezo Osaka 1699 · JEF United Chiba 1537
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cerezo Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1733
JEF United Chiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1496
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cerezo Osaka
13th in J1 League · 12 pts from 10
- 17 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1701
- 10 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1742
- 19 SepDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1725
- 12 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1773
- 6 SepDTokyo Verdy J1 League1735
JEF United Chiba
19th in J1 League · 6 pts from 10
- 17 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1509
- 11 OctDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1527
- 19 SepLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1546
- 13 SepDTokyo Verdy J1 League1553
- 6 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1452
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 12 /10 | 48.9 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 11th |
| JEF United Chiba | 6 /10 | 33.2 | 0% | 0% | 72% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cerezo Osaka: possession-based (how Pablo Javier Machín Díez plays) · JEF United Chiba: balanced profile (how Yoshiyuki Kobayashi plays)