J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
Cerezo Osaka host FC Tokyo on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cerezo Osaka 26%, draw 28%, FC Tokyo 46%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cerezo Osaka €620K, FC Tokyo €904K.
- J1 League: M. Nagakura is the highest-rated forward (1988).
- All 11 of Cerezo Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- FC Tokyo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cerezo Osaka goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–28%
- 0–07%
- 1–07%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Cerezo Osaka 1679 · FC Tokyo 1878
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cerezo Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1736
FC Tokyo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1940
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cerezo Osaka
11th in J1 League · 17 pts from 14
- 8 NovWGamba Osaka J1 League1691
- 31 OctLKashima J1 League1639
- 25 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1672
- 21 OctDNagoya Grampus J1 League1655
- 17 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1693
FC Tokyo
1st in J1 League · 33 pts from 14
- 7 NovWKashima J1 League1833
- 31 OctWFagiano Okayama J1 League1842
- 25 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1851
- 21 OctDKashiwa Reysol J1 League1891
- 17 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1833
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 17 /14 | 47.4 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 11th |
| FC Tokyo | 33 /14 | 74.6 | 36% | 89% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cerezo Osaka: possession-based (how Pablo Machín plays) · FC Tokyo: balanced profile (how Rikizo Matsuhashi plays)