UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Celtic vs Celta Vigo
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Celtic Park, Glasgow
Celtic host Celta Vigo on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Celtic 46%, draw 28%, Celta Vigo 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Celtic €3.5M, Celta Vigo €8.7M.
- Premiership: V. Sinisalo is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2160).
- Celtic's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Celtic goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: Celtic 2095 · Celta Vigo 2071
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Celtic · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2104
Celta Vigo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2029
Absences
Celtic
Ruled out
- A. JohnstonLeg Injury2200
- Shumaira MheukaOff the roster1106
Doubtful
- Yang Hyun-JunHamstring Injury2135
- C. Carter-VickersHealth problems2128
Celta Vigo
Ruled out
- C. StarfeltMuscle Injury2190
- Pablo DuránCalf Injury2080
- Miguel RománKnee Injury2078
- Borja IglesiasCalf Injury1941
- J. El AbdellaouiKnee Injury1604
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Celtic
1st in Premiership · 24 pts from 9
- 18 OctWHeart Of Midlothian Scotland Premiership2005
- 15 OctLBenfica UEFA Europa League2055
- 11 OctWMotherwell Scotland Premiership2070
- 20 SepLRangers Scotland Premiership2106
- 17 SepLFerencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League2024
Celta Vigo
8th in La Liga · 11 pts from 9
- 18 OctWAlaves La Liga2071
- 15 OctLJuventus UEFA Europa League2105
- 11 OctDElche La Liga2089
- 19 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2031
- 16 SepLOmonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League2078
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 0 /2 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 61.6 | 35.5 |
| Celta Vigo | 0 /2 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 59.8 | 37.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Celtic: possession-based · creative (how Martin Hugh Michael O'Neill plays) · Celta Vigo: balanced profile (how Claudio Giráldez González plays)