UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Celta Vigo host Union St. Gilloise on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Celta Vigo 44%, draw 28%, Union St. Gilloise 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Celta Vigo €7.7M, Union St. Gilloise €6.4M.
- Home advantage makes Celta Vigo the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Pro League: A. Zorgane is the highest-rated midfielder (2315).
- Union St. Gilloise's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Celta Vigo goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Celta Vigo 2089 · Union St. Gilloise 2089
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Celta Vigo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2079
Union St. Gilloise · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Elite) · Elo 1956
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Celta Vigo
8th in La Liga · 11 pts from 9
- 22 OctWCeltic UEFA Europa League2029
- 18 OctWAlaves La Liga2071
- 15 OctLJuventus UEFA Europa League2105
- 11 OctDElche La Liga2089
- 19 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2031
Union St. Gilloise
4th in Pro League · 20 pts from 8
- 22 OctWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League1994
- 15 OctDReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League1992
- 11 OctDOH Leuven Belgium Pro League2001
- 20 SepWAntwerp Belgium Pro League2088
- 17 SepWPlzen UEFA Europa League1978
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 3 /3 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 78.6 | 14.5 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 7 /3 | 13.5 | 27.8 | 69.8 | 2.4 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Celta Vigo: balanced profile (how Claudio Giráldez plays) · Union St. Gilloise: high-pressing (how David Hubert plays)