UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
Brann vs Aarhus
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Brann Stadion, Bergen
Brann host Aarhus on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Brann 40%, draw 29%, Aarhus 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Brann €828K, Aarhus €1.1M.
- Home advantage makes Brann the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Brann goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 1–08%
- 1–27%
- 2–27%
- 0–17%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Brann 1720 · Aarhus 1778
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Brann · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1740
Aarhus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1796
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Brann
7th in Eliteserien · 33 pts from 26
- 8 NovDFredrikstad Eliteserien1726
- 5 NovDSt. Truiden UEFA Conference League1704
- 1 NovWMolde Eliteserien1691
- 25 OctLLillestrom Eliteserien1711
- 22 OctWKauno Žalgiris UEFA Conference League1681
Aarhus
8th in Superliga · 15 pts from 14
- 8 NovWAC Horsens Denmark Superliga1736
- 5 NovDSC Braga UEFA Conference League1713
- 1 NovLBrondby Denmark Superliga1742
- 25 OctWViborg Denmark Superliga1708
- 22 OctDEgnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Conference League1741
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann | 7 /3 | 10.0 | 16.9 | 82.7 | 0.5 |
| Aarhus | 2 /3 | 6.6 | 0.3 | 64.9 | 34.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Brann: possession-based (how Eirik Horneland plays) · Aarhus: balanced profile (how J. Poulsen plays)