UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Bournemouth host AC Milan on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bournemouth 42%, draw 29%, AC Milan 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bournemouth €24.5M, AC Milan €25.9M.
- Home advantage makes Bournemouth the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Serie A: M. Maignan is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2486).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bournemouth goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Bournemouth 2237 · AC Milan 2264
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bournemouth · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2387
AC Milan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2354
Absences
Bournemouth
Ruled out
- A. ScottThigh Injury2431
- E. KroupiFoot Injury2134
- Juanlu SánchezOff the roster2037
- J. AraujoThigh Injury2025
- M. AaronsOff the roster1928
- D. JebbisonOff the roster1837
AC Milan
Ruled out
- M. GabbiaThigh Injury2316
- A. SaelemaekersAnkle Injury2247
- F. TerraccianoRed Card1968
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bournemouth
15th in Premier League · 6 pts from 7
- 18 OctWSunderland Premier League2266
- 15 OctWSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2185
- 10 OctLChelsea Premier League2269
- 20 SepLLiverpool Premier League2299
- 17 SepWReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League2289
AC Milan
4th in Serie A · 15 pts from 7
- 18 OctWAtalanta Serie A2271
- 15 OctWRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League2173
- 11 OctDSassuolo Serie A2301
- 20 SepWLecce Serie A2243
- 16 SepLBenfica UEFA Europa League2194
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 6 /2 | 18.2 | 84.5 | 15.4 | 0.0 |
| AC Milan | 3 /2 | 14.8 | 47.0 | 51.8 | 1.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bournemouth: balanced profile (how Marco Rose plays) · AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Filipe Marques Diogo Amorim plays)