UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund host Real Betis on Wed 4 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Borussia Dortmund 44%, draw 28%, Real Betis 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Borussia Dortmund €35.5M, Real Betis €15.0M.
- Home advantage makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Bundesliga: G. Kobel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2470).
- All 11 of Real Betis' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Borussia Dortmund goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Borussia Dortmund 2259 · Real Betis 2267
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Borussia Dortmund · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2394
Real Betis · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Elite) · Elo 2335
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Borussia Dortmund
2nd in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 17 OctDUnion Berlin Bundesliga2361
- 14 OctLBodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League2272
- 9 OctDWerder Bremen Bundesliga2364
- 19 SepWVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2361
- 12 SepWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2306
Real Betis
4th in La Liga · 19 pts from 9
- 17 OctLBarcelona La Liga2262
- 14 OctWFC Porto UEFA Champions League2250
- 11 OctWOsasuna La Liga2276
- 20 SepDDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2287
- 17 SepWGetafe La Liga2213
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 /2 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 71.2 | 18.7 |
| Real Betis | 6 /2 | 14.5 | 37.1 | 60.0 | 2.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Borussia Dortmund: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Niko Kovač plays) · Real Betis: balanced profile (how M. Pellegrini plays)