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Championship · Regular Season - 9

Bolton 1–2 Stoke City

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich

Bolton crestBoltonTeam 1923
1–2
Full time
HT 0–1
Stoke City crestStoke CityTeam 1963

Match story

Bolton · draw · Stoke City

Before kick-off: 39% · 29% · 33%

Live chances: Bolton 0%, draw 5%, Stoke City 94% at 90+4'2' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 29%, Stoke City 33%3' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 29%, Stoke City 33%4' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 29%, Stoke City 32%5' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 29%, Stoke City 32%6' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 29%, Stoke City 32%7' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 30%, Stoke City 32%8' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 30%, Stoke City 32%9' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 30%, Stoke City 32%10' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 30%, Stoke City 32%11' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 30%, Stoke City 32%12' · 0–0 · Bolton 38%, draw 30%, Stoke City 32%14' · 0–0 · Bolton 37%, draw 31%, Stoke City 32%15' · 0–0 · Bolton 37%, draw 31%, Stoke City 32%17' · 0–0 · Bolton 37%, draw 31%, Stoke City 32%18' · 0–0 · Bolton 37%, draw 31%, Stoke City 32%19' · 0–0 · Bolton 37%, draw 32%, Stoke City 32%20' · 0–0 · Bolton 37%, draw 32%, Stoke City 32%21' · 0–0 · Bolton 37%, draw 32%, Stoke City 31%22' · 0–0 · Bolton 55%, draw 28%, Stoke City 17%23' · 0–0 · Bolton 55%, draw 29%, Stoke City 17%24' · 0–0 · Bolton 55%, draw 29%, Stoke City 17%25' · 0–0 · Bolton 54%, draw 29%, Stoke City 17%26' · 0–0 · Bolton 54%, draw 29%, Stoke City 17%27' · 0–0 · Bolton 54%, draw 30%, Stoke City 17%28' · 0–0 · Bolton 54%, draw 30%, Stoke City 17%29' · 0–0 · Bolton 53%, draw 30%, Stoke City 17%30' · 0–0 · Bolton 53%, draw 30%, Stoke City 17%31' · 0–0 · Bolton 53%, draw 31%, Stoke City 17%32' · 0–0 · Bolton 53%, draw 31%, Stoke City 17%33' · 0–0 · Bolton 52%, draw 31%, Stoke City 17%35' · 0–0 · Bolton 52%, draw 32%, Stoke City 17%36' · 0–0 · Bolton 51%, draw 32%, Stoke City 17%37' · 0–0 · Bolton 51%, draw 32%, Stoke City 17%38' · 0–0 · Bolton 51%, draw 33%, Stoke City 17%39' · 0–0 · Bolton 50%, draw 33%, Stoke City 17%40' · 0–0 · Bolton 50%, draw 33%, Stoke City 16%41' · 0–0 · Bolton 50%, draw 34%, Stoke City 16%42' · 0–0 · Bolton 49%, draw 34%, Stoke City 16%43' · 0–0 · Bolton 49%, draw 35%, Stoke City 16%44' · 0–0 · Bolton 49%, draw 35%, Stoke City 16%45' · 0–0 · Bolton 48%, draw 35%, Stoke City 16%45+1' · 0–0 · Bolton 48%, draw 36%, Stoke City 16%45+2' · 0–0 · Bolton 48%, draw 36%, Stoke City 16%45+4' · 0–0 · Bolton 47%, draw 37%, Stoke City 16%45+5' · 0–1 · Bolton 23%, draw 31%, Stoke City 47%45+6' · 0–1 · Bolton 23%, draw 31%, Stoke City 47%HT · 0–1 · Bolton 23%, draw 31%, Stoke City 47%47' · 0–1 · Bolton 22%, draw 31%, Stoke City 47%48' · 0–1 · Bolton 22%, draw 31%, Stoke City 48%49' · 0–1 · Bolton 21%, draw 31%, Stoke City 48%50' · 0–1 · Bolton 20%, draw 31%, Stoke City 49%51' · 0–1 · Bolton 20%, draw 31%, Stoke City 49%52' · 0–1 · Bolton 19%, draw 31%, Stoke City 50%53' · 0–1 · Bolton 19%, draw 31%, Stoke City 50%54' · 0–1 · Bolton 18%, draw 31%, Stoke City 51%55' · 0–1 · Bolton 18%, draw 31%, Stoke City 52%56' · 0–1 · Bolton 17%, draw 31%, Stoke City 52%57' · 0–1 · Bolton 16%, draw 31%, Stoke City 53%58' · 0–1 · Bolton 16%, draw 31%, Stoke City 54%59' · 0–1 · Bolton 8%, draw 24%, Stoke City 68%60' · 0–1 · Bolton 15%, draw 30%, Stoke City 55%61' · 0–1 · Bolton 14%, draw 30%, Stoke City 56%62' · 0–2 · Bolton 2%, draw 9%, Stoke City 89%63' · 0–2 · Bolton 2%, draw 9%, Stoke City 89%64' · 0–2 · Bolton 2%, draw 8%, Stoke City 90%65' · 0–2 · Bolton 2%, draw 8%, Stoke City 90%66' · 0–2 · Bolton 2%, draw 8%, Stoke City 91%67' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 7%, Stoke City 91%68' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 7%, Stoke City 92%69' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 7%, Stoke City 92%70' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 6%, Stoke City 92%71' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 6%, Stoke City 93%72' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 6%, Stoke City 93%73' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 5%, Stoke City 94%74' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 5%, Stoke City 94%75' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 5%, Stoke City 94%76' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 4%, Stoke City 95%77' · 0–2 · Bolton 1%, draw 4%, Stoke City 95%78' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 4%, Stoke City 96%79' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 4%, Stoke City 96%80' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 3%, Stoke City 96%81' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 3%, Stoke City 97%82' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 3%, Stoke City 97%83' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 2%, Stoke City 97%84' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 2%, Stoke City 98%85' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 2%, Stoke City 98%86' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 2%, Stoke City 98%87' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 1%, Stoke City 99%88' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 1%, Stoke City 99%89' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 1%, Stoke City 99%90' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 1%, Stoke City 99%90+1' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 1%, Stoke City 99%90+2' · 0–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 0%, Stoke City 100%90+3' · 1–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 7%, Stoke City 92%90+4' · 1–2 · Bolton 0%, draw 5%, Stoke City 94%

Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 5% · 94%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Bolton 39% to win: Stoke City won.

  1. 20'Stoke City:Maksym Taloverov 1978 −4*
  2. 34'Stoke City:Jack Mcglynn 2131 +11*
  3. 45'Bolton:Atsuki Ito 1904 −11* for Ethan Erhahon 1938 −11*
  4. 45'Stoke City:Luca Bombino 2091 −2* for Justin Devenny 1906 +10
  5. 45+4'Stoke City:Lamine Cissé 1893 +37* assist Ethan Galbraith 2100 +30
  6. 56'Bolton:Samuel Iling 1865 −8* for Kyliane Dong 1646 −8*
  7. 56'Bolton:Jayden Nelson 1868 −9* for Thierry Gale 1964 −5
  8. 62'Stoke City:Ben Wilmot 2055 +28* assist Jack Mcglynn 2131 +11*
  9. 63'Bolton:Ryan Hardie 1784 −9* for Ruben Rodrigues 1847 −10*
  10. 69'Stoke City:Junior Tchamadeu 1931 −3* for Jack Mcglynn 2131 +11*
  11. 69'Stoke City:George Hirst 2060 −5* for Lamine Cissé 1893 +37*
  12. 69'Stoke City:Bosun Lawal 1877 +5 for El Hadji Soumare 1848 +10*
  13. 72'Bolton:Max Conway 1944 −14*
  14. 82'Bolton:Thelonius Bair 1770 −8* for Ben Davies 1908 −14*
  15. 90+2'Bolton:Thelonius Bair 1770 −8* assist Gaizka Larrazabal 1899 −13*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-3
GG. Bazunu2016−19*
DGaizka Larrazabal1899−13*
DE. Toal1959−16*
DB. Davies1908−14*
DM. Conway1944−14*
MJ. Sheehan1873−8
ME. Erhahon1938−11*
MK. Dong1646−8*
MRuben Rodrigues1847−10*
MT. Gale1964−5
FS. Dalby1960−16*
CS. Schumacher1937−19*
GV. Johansson2095+11
DB. Wilmot2055+28*
DM. Talovierov1978−4*
DL. Graham1932+56
MB. Johnson2070+4*
MEl Hadji Djibril Soumaré1848+10*
ME. Galbraith2100+30
ME. Bocat1973+9*
FJ. Devenny1906+10
FL. Cissé1893+37*
FJ. McGlynn2131+11*
CM. Robins1982+23*
Before kick-off: 39% · 29% · 33%(Bolton · draw · Stoke City)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Bolton €1.2M, Stoke City €3.0M.
  • Home advantage made Bolton the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Bolton

15th in Championship · 10 pts from 8

  • 20 SepWNorwich 1870
  • 12 SepWCardiff 1850
  • 8 SepLWest Ham 1859
  • 5 SepLMillwall 1892
  • 29 AugLLincoln 1910

Stoke City

7th in Championship · 13 pts from 8

  • 19 SepWSheffield Utd 1938
  • 12 SepWWatford 1904
  • 8 SepDCardiff 1909
  • 5 SepWCharlton 1856
  • 29 AugLWolves 1887

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Bolton10 /857.10%1%13%18th
Stoke City13 /865.41%13%1%10th
Bolton
Stoke City

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

T. Gale
T. Gale

Bolton · +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 1968

J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn

Stoke City · +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 2120

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Steven Schumacher

Coach DNA: creative

Mark Gordon Robins

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Bolton: possession-based · creative (how Steven Schumacher plays) · Stoke City: balanced profile (how Mark Gordon Robins plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.