UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Besiktas Park, Istanbul
Beşiktaş host Hapoel Beer Sheva on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Beşiktaş 75%, draw 16%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Beşiktaş €8.9M, Hapoel Beer Sheva €1.4M.
- Draw chance 16%, below the UEFA Europa League average of 22% this round.
- Süper Lig: L. Trossard is the highest-rated midfielder (2416).
- Ligat Ha'al: I. Zlatanović is the highest-rated forward (1935).
- All 11 of Beşiktaş's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Beşiktaş goals first.
- 2–012%
- 3–010%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.3 pts
Team Elo: Beşiktaş 2207 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1822
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Beşiktaş · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2416
Hapoel Beer Sheva · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1905
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Beşiktaş
4th in Süper Lig · 22 pts from 11
- 8 NovWGençlerbirliği S.K. Turkey Super Lig2218
- 5 NovLCeltic UEFA Europa League2245
- 1 NovDKasımpaşa Turkey Super Lig2254
- 26 OctWBaşakşehir Turkey Super Lig2243
- 22 OctDCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League2111
Hapoel Beer Sheva
3rd in Ligat Ha'al · 22 pts from 10
- 8 NovLHapoel Tel Aviv Israeli Ligat Haal1836
- 5 NovLOFI UEFA Europa League1776
- 1 NovWMaccabi Petah Tikva Israeli Ligat Haal1802
- 26 OctWMaccabi Haifa Israeli Ligat Haal1807
- 22 OctLUnion St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League1812
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 7 /4 | 14.1 | 38.0 | 60.8 | 1.2 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 /4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 99.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Beşiktaş: possession-based (how Vincenzo Italiano plays) · Hapoel Beer Sheva: creative (how Ran Kozuch plays)