UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Besiktas Park, Istanbul
Beşiktaş host Crystal Palace on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Beşiktaş 43%, draw 28%, Crystal Palace 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Beşiktaş €8.2M, Crystal Palace €25.3M.
- Beşiktaş are without 1 expected starter: O. Kökçü (2313).
- Home advantage makes Beşiktaş the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Süper Lig: L. Trossard is the highest-rated midfielder (2490).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Beşiktaş goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Beşiktaş 2226 · Crystal Palace 2236
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: V. Černý for O. Kökçü.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Beşiktaş · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 2490
Crystal Palace · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2264
Absences
Beşiktaş
Ruled out
- O. KökçüInactive2313
- M. RashicaInjury2067
Crystal Palace
Ruled out
- J. LermaOff the roster2232
- E. GuessandOff the roster2179
- C. RiadKnee Injury2049
- C. DoucouréOff the roster2015
- Z. GozoOff the roster1977
Doubtful
- D. HendersonFoot Injury2335
- T. TomiyasuCalf Injury2232
- B. ChilwellInjury2195
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Beşiktaş
4th in Süper Lig · 15 pts from 7
- 15 OctW1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League2200
- 11 OctWKocaelispor Turkey Super Lig2242
- 20 SepLAmed Turkey Super Lig2223
- 17 SepWMarseille UEFA Europa League2177
- 11 SepWErzurumspor FK Turkey Super Lig2216
Crystal Palace
14th in Premier League · 7 pts from 7
- 18 OctLBrighton Premier League2240
- 15 OctLLyon UEFA Europa League2267
- 11 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2238
- 20 SepDLeeds Premier League2240
- 17 SepWLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2237
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 6 /2 | 16.3 | 63.1 | 36.6 | 0.3 |
| Crystal Palace | 3 /2 | 13.9 | 36.7 | 60.1 | 3.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Beşiktaş: possession-based (how Vincenzo Italiano plays) · Crystal Palace: balanced profile (how Pierre Sage plays)