UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Benfica host Lech Poznan on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Benfica 69%, draw 19%, Lech Poznan 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Benfica €13.8M, Lech Poznan €2.5M.
- Draw chance 19%, below the UEFA Europa League average of 26% this round.
- Benfica's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Benfica goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–08%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.9 pts
Team Elo: Benfica 2239 · Lech Poznan 1934
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Benfica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2362
Lech Poznan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2002
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Benfica
2nd in Primeira Liga · 19 pts from 8
- 22 OctWOmonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League2175
- 15 OctWCeltic UEFA Europa League2267
- 11 OctWVitória SC Primeira Liga2239
- 20 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga2248
- 16 SepWAC Milan UEFA Europa League2124
Lech Poznan
2nd in Ekstraklasa · 25 pts from 10
- 22 OctDSunderland UEFA Europa League1937
- 18 OctWKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1940
- 15 OctLBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League1954
- 10 OctWSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1904
- 20 SepWRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa1912
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 9 /3 | 19.7 | 95.3 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
| Lech Poznan | 1 /3 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 32.0 | 67.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Benfica: shot-heavy · possession-based (how Marco Silva plays) · Lech Poznan: possession-based (how Niels Frederiksen plays)