NewPlayerElo now rates women's footballExplore →
← All matches

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Benfica 4–1 Celtic

Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Benfica crestBenficaTeam 2266
4–1
Full time
HT 3–0
Celtic crestCelticTeam 2064

Match story

Benfica · draw · Celtic

Before kick-off: 62% · 22% · 16%

Live chances: Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0% at 90+3'3' · 0–0 · Benfica 61%, draw 22%, Celtic 16%4' · 0–0 · Benfica 61%, draw 22%, Celtic 16%5' · 0–0 · Benfica 61%, draw 23%, Celtic 16%6' · 1–0 · Benfica 83%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%7' · 1–0 · Benfica 83%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%8' · 1–0 · Benfica 83%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%9' · 1–0 · Benfica 83%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%10' · 1–0 · Benfica 83%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%11' · 1–0 · Benfica 83%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%12' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%13' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 12%, Celtic 5%14' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%15' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%16' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%17' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%18' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%19' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%20' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%21' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%22' · 1–0 · Benfica 82%, draw 13%, Celtic 5%23' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%24' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%25' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%26' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%27' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%28' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%29' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%30' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%31' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%32' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%33' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%34' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%35' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%36' · 2–0 · Benfica 96%, draw 3%, Celtic 1%37' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%38' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%39' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%40' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%41' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%42' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%43' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%44' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%45' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%45+1' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%HT · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%47' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%48' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%49' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%50' · 3–0 · Benfica 99%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%51' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%52' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%53' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%54' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%55' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%56' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%57' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%58' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%59' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%60' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%61' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%62' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%63' · 3–0 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%64' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%65' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%66' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%67' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%68' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%69' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%70' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%71' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%72' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 2%, Celtic 0%73' · 3–1 · Benfica 98%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%74' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%75' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%76' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%77' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%78' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%79' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%80' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%81' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%82' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%83' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%84' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%85' · 3–1 · Benfica 99%, draw 1%, Celtic 0%86' · 3–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%87' · 3–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%88' · 3–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%89' · 3–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%90' · 4–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%90+1' · 4–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%90+2' · 4–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%90+3' · 4–1 · Benfica 100%, draw 0%, Celtic 0%

Last reading, 90+3': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Benfica 62% to win: they did.

  1. 5'Benfica:Jhon Durán 2302 +14 (pen.)
  2. 23'Benfica:Alexander Bah 2249 +19 assist Gianluca Prestianni 2183 +29
  3. 36'Benfica:Jhon Durán 2302 +14 assist Gianluca Prestianni 2183 +29
  4. 44'Benfica:Samuel Dahl 2317 +5
  5. 45'Celtic:Haissem Hassan 1913 0 for Kasper Hogh 2151 −1
  6. 45'Celtic:Callum Osmand 1356 −8* for Sebastian Tounekti 1995 0
  7. 57'Celtic:Benjamin Nygren 2300 −4 for Oliver Sorensen 1975 0
  8. 57'Celtic:Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 1858 −13* for Mika Baur 2088 0
  9. 63'Celtic:Camilo Duran 1954 0 assist Haissem Hassan 1913 0
  10. 64'Benfica:Claudio Echeverri 1865 +6 for Heorhii Sudakov 2303 +14
  11. 64'Benfica:Souffian El Karouani 2088 −4* for Samuel Dahl 2317 +5
  12. 67'Benfica:Vangelis Pavlidis 2355 +3 for Jhon Durán 2302 +14
  13. 68'Benfica:Andreas Schjelderup 2319 +2 for Dodi Lukebakio 2149 +7
  14. 69'Benfica:Alexander Bah 2249 +19
  15. 77'Celtic:Jordan Lotomba 2039 −1 for Colby Donovan 2078 0
  16. 80'Benfica:Alessandro Circati 2171 +1 for Alexander Bah 2249 +19
  17. 85'Benfica:João Palhinha 2315 +15
  18. 89'Benfica:Vangelis Pavlidis 2355 +3 assist Tomás Araújo 2353 +16

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GA. Trubin2342+17
DA. Bah2249+19
DTomás Araújo2353+16
DC. Lenglet2290+9*
DS. Dahl2317+5
MF. Aursnes2306+17
MJoão Palhinha2315+15
MD. Lukebakio2149+7
MH. Sudakov2303+14
MG. Prestianni2183+29
FJ. Durán2302+14
CMarco Silva2338+11
GV. Sinisalo2121−1
DColby Donovan20780
DD. Murray17650
DA. Trusty2184−13*
DK. Tierney2150−4
MC. McGregor2137−7
MM. Baur20880
MC. Durán19540
MO. Sørensen19750
MS. Tounekti19950
FK. Høgh2151−1
CM. O'Neill20740
Before kick-off: 62% · 22% · 16%(Benfica · draw · Celtic)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (10%); the result 4–1 had 4%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Benfica €13.5M, Celtic €3.9M.
  • Benfica were without 1 expected starter: Daniel Banjaqui (1565).
  • Celtic were without 2 expected starters: C. Carter-Vickers (2128) and C. Durán (1954).
  • Premiership: V. Sinisalo was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2122).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Benfica

2nd in Primeira Liga · 19 pts from 8

  • 11 OctWVitória SC 2239
  • 20 SepLFC Porto 2248
  • 16 SepWAC Milan 2124
  • 13 SepWGIL Vicente 2164
  • 9 SepWMoreirense 2146

Celtic

1st in Premiership · 21 pts from 8

  • 11 OctWMotherwell 2070
  • 20 SepLRangers 2106
  • 17 SepLFerencvarosi TC 2024
  • 9 SepWST Johnstone 2027
  • 5 SepWST Mirren 2091

League phase outlook

From the Europa League simulation, after 1 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).

ClubPtsPred. ptsTop 8Play-offOut
Benfica3 /117.580.319.30.4
Celtic0 /110.610.261.228.7

Full league phase and chances: Europa League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Tomás Araújo
Tomás Araújo

Benfica · +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2338

M. Baur
M. Baur

Celtic · +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2088

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Marco Alexandre Saraiva da Silva

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Martin Hugh Michael O'Neill

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Benfica: shot-heavy · possession-based (how Marco Alexandre Saraiva da Silva plays) · Celtic: possession-based · creative (how Martin Hugh Michael O'Neill plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.