UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Bayern München vs Arsenal
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich
Bayern München host Arsenal on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bayern München 37%, draw 29%, Arsenal 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bayern München €38.4M, Arsenal €54.2M.
- Bayern München are without 1 expected starter: M. Olise (2664).
- Home advantage makes Bayern München the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2642).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bayern München goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Bayern München 2528 · Arsenal 2624
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: T. Bischof for M. Olise.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.1 (Elite) · Elo 2532
Arsenal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Good) · Elo 2671
Absences
Bayern München
Ruled out
- M. OliseRed Card2664
- J. MusialaMuscle Injury2496
- T. BuchmannKnee Injury1999
Arsenal
Ruled out
- W. SalibaBack Injury2682
- P. HincapiéAnkle Injury2541
- C. TzolisHamstring Injury2478
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 17 OctWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2504
- 13 OctDViking UEFA Champions League2468
- 10 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga2548
- 18 SepWUnion Berlin Bundesliga2566
- 13 SepWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2465
Arsenal
2nd in Premier League · 18 pts from 7
- 18 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2625
- 13 OctWLille UEFA Champions League2596
- 10 OctWLeeds Premier League2622
- 19 SepLBrighton Premier League2624
- 15 SepWIpswich England League Cup2412
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 4 /2 | 15.3 | 56.4 | 42.4 | 1.1 |
| Arsenal | 6 /2 | 18.9 | 92.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays) · Arsenal: balanced profile (how Mikel Arteta plays)