UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bayer Leverkusen 60%, draw 23%, Marseille 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bayer Leverkusen €24.9M, Marseille €13.7M.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bayer Leverkusen goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Bayer Leverkusen 2276 · Marseille 2092
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bayer Leverkusen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2356
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2151
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bayer Leverkusen
4th in Bundesliga · 13 pts from 6
- 22 OctWOFI UEFA Europa League2236
- 18 OctWSC Freiburg Bundesliga2282
- 15 OctWLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2248
- 10 OctWFSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga2262
- 20 SepWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2234
Marseille
9th in Ligue 1 · 9 pts from 7
- 22 OctLSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2024
- 18 OctWAngers Ligue 12072
- 15 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League2030
- 11 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12094
- 20 SepLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12118
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 9 /3 | 18.4 | 86.9 | 13.1 | 0.0 |
| Marseille | 0 /3 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 39.0 | 60.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bayer Leverkusen: possession-based · low-block (how Carles Martínez plays) · Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays)