UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Camp Nou, Barcelona
Barcelona host Aston Villa on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Barcelona 64%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barcelona €56.6M, Aston Villa €27.7M.
- La Liga: Joan García is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2705).
- Barcelona's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 over 180 days.
- Barcelona have won their last 5 matches.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Barcelona goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.7 pts
Team Elo: Barcelona 2617 · Aston Villa 2375
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barcelona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.4 (Elite) · Elo 2791
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2410
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barcelona
1st in La Liga · 27 pts from 9
- 17 OctWReal Betis La Liga2636
- 13 OctWGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2677
- 10 OctWGetafe La Liga2598
- 19 SepWSevilla La Liga2614
- 16 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2611
Aston Villa
12th in Premier League · 8 pts from 7
- 17 OctWNewcastle Premier League2328
- 14 OctWFenerbahçe UEFA Champions League2325
- 10 OctDBrentford Premier League2394
- 19 SepWTottenham Premier League2344
- 16 SepWCoventry England League Cup2121
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 6 /2 | 18.3 | 87.7 | 12.2 | 0.1 |
| Aston Villa | 6 /2 | 15.8 | 62.3 | 37.0 | 0.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barcelona: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Hansi Flick plays) · Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery Etxegoien plays)