UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar host Juventus on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AZ Alkmaar 33%, draw 29%, Juventus 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AZ Alkmaar €4.9M, Juventus €21.3M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AZ Alkmaar goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: AZ Alkmaar 2061 · Juventus 2211
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AZ Alkmaar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 2148
Juventus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2311
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AZ Alkmaar
2nd in Eredivisie · 20 pts from 9
- 22 OctWArarat-Armenia UEFA Europa League2005
- 18 OctDCambuur Eredivisie2080
- 15 OctWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League2012
- 10 OctLFeyenoord Eredivisie2093
- 20 SepWTelstar Eredivisie2111
Juventus
8th in Serie A · 11 pts from 7
- 22 OctDRennes UEFA Europa League2263
- 18 OctLLazio Serie A2269
- 15 OctWCelta Vigo UEFA Europa League2250
- 11 OctDCagliari Serie A2300
- 20 SepWAtalanta Serie A2238
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 6 /3 | 13.2 | 23.5 | 72.5 | 4.0 |
| Juventus | 7 /3 | 16.2 | 65.3 | 34.3 | 0.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AZ Alkmaar: balanced profile (how Leeroy Echteld plays) · Juventus: possession-based (how Luciano Spalletti plays)