J1 League · Regular Season - 16
Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka host Yokohama F. Marinos on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Avispa Fukuoka 29%, draw 28%, Yokohama F. Marinos 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Avispa Fukuoka €428K, Yokohama F. Marinos €642K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of J1 League matchday 16: 156 points.
- Avispa Fukuoka's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.3 over 180 days.
- Yokohama F. Marinos are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Avispa Fukuoka goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 1–08%
- 0–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Avispa Fukuoka 1583 · Yokohama F. Marinos 1739
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Avispa Fukuoka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1580
Yokohama F. Marinos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1888
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Avispa Fukuoka
20th in J1 League · 8 pts from 14
- 7 NovDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1584
- 1 NovLJEF United Chiba J1 League1593
- 24 OctLTokyo Verdy J1 League1597
- 21 OctLGamba Osaka J1 League1582
- 18 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1602
Yokohama F. Marinos
7th in J1 League · 22 pts from 14
- 7 NovDFagiano Okayama J1 League1730
- 1 NovWKawasaki Frontale J1 League1688
- 25 OctDNagoya Grampus J1 League1663
- 21 OctDTokyo Verdy J1 League1691
- 17 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1698
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 8 /14 | 33.1 | 0% | 0% | 69% | 20th |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 22 /14 | 56.3 | 0% | 4% | <1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Avispa Fukuoka: direct (how Shinya Tsukahara plays) · Yokohama F. Marinos: balanced profile (how S. Corica plays)