J1 League · Regular Season - 14
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka host V-varen Nagasaki on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Avispa Fukuoka 37%, draw 29%, V-varen Nagasaki 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Avispa Fukuoka €393K, V-varen Nagasaki €384K.
- Home advantage makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- Avispa Fukuoka's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Avispa Fukuoka goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Avispa Fukuoka 1606 · V-varen Nagasaki 1646
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Avispa Fukuoka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1617
V-varen Nagasaki · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1676
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Avispa Fukuoka
18th in J1 League · 7 pts from 11
- 21 OctLGamba Osaka J1 League1593
- 18 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1612
- 10 OctWFagiano Okayama J1 League1576
- 19 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1585
- 12 SepLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1613
V-varen Nagasaki
14th in J1 League · 12 pts from 11
- 21 OctWSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1550
- 17 OctLKashima J1 League1564
- 11 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1601
- 19 SepDCerezo Osaka J1 League1608
- 12 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1570
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 7 /11 | 37.2 | 0% | 0% | 44% | 18th |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 12 /11 | 44.8 | 0% | <1% | 10% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Avispa Fukuoka: direct (how Shinya Tsukahara plays) · V-varen Nagasaki: balanced profile (how Takuya Takagi plays)