J1 League · Regular Season - 9
Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano Okayama
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
Avispa FukuokaTeam 1499Fagiano OkayamaTeam 1664- Yota Maejima 7'
- Yu Hashimoto 76'
- Kosuke Shirai 61'
We gave Fagiano Okayama 43% to win: Avispa Fukuoka won.
- Yota Maejima7'Avispa Fukuoka:Yota Maejima
- 36'Kamiya YutaFagiano Okayama:Kamiya Yuta
- 45'Kota Kawano offFagiano Okayama:Kota Kawano off
- 45'Kamiya Yuta offFagiano Okayama:Kamiya Yuta off
- Masato Shigemi47'Avispa Fukuoka:Masato Shigemi
- 56'Towa Yamane offFagiano Okayama:Towa Yamane off
- 61'Kosuke ShiraiFagiano Okayama:Kosuke Shirai
- Masato Yuzawa off66'Avispa Fukuoka:Masato Yuzawa off
- Teppei Oka off66'Avispa Fukuoka:Teppei Oka off
- Masato Shigemi off66'Avispa Fukuoka:Masato Shigemi off
- Yuma Tsujioka67'Avispa Fukuoka:Yuma Tsujioka
- Yu Hashimoto76'Avispa Fukuoka:Yu Hashimoto
- 78'Kosuke Shirai offFagiano Okayama:Kosuke Shirai off
- 81'Na Sang-Ho offFagiano Okayama:Na Sang-Ho off
- Yuji Kitajima82'Avispa Fukuoka:Yuji Kitajima
- Werik Popo off83'Avispa Fukuoka:Werik Popo off
- Yota Maejima off88'Avispa Fukuoka:Yota Maejima off
- 90+1'Noah Kenshin BrowneFagiano Okayama:Noah Kenshin Browne
- Abdul Hanan Sani Brown90+4'Avispa Fukuoka:Abdul Hanan Sani Brown
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 43%(Avispa Fukuoka · draw · Fagiano Okayama)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–1 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Avispa Fukuoka €394K, Fagiano Okayama €555K.
- Avispa Fukuoka's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Avispa Fukuoka
18th in J1 League · 4 pts from 8
- 19 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1585
- 12 SepLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1613
- 5 SepDMito Hollyhock J1 League1602
- 2 SepLUrawa J1 League1633
- 29 AugLKyoto Sanga J1 League1641
Fagiano Okayama
9th in J1 League · 13 pts from 8
- 19 SepLKyoto Sanga J1 League1738
- 13 SepWUrawa J1 League1686
- 6 SepWSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1645
- 2 SepWJEF United Chiba J1 League1664
- 29 AugLNagoya Grampus J1 League1733
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 4 /8 | 38.6 | 0% | 0% | 41% | 19th |
| Fagiano Okayama | 13 /8 | 52.9 | <1% | 5% | 2% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Avispa Fukuoka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Average) · Elo 1699
Fagiano Okayama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1835
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Avispa Fukuoka: direct (how Shinya Tsukahara plays) · Fagiano Okayama: direct (how Takashi Kiyama plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.