UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Atletico Madrid host Bayern München on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico Madrid 33%, draw 29%, Bayern München 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Madrid €24.9M, Bayern München €42.3M.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2642).
- Bayern München's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 over 180 days.
- Atletico Madrid have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico Madrid goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Atletico Madrid 2378 · Bayern München 2528
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 2458
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.1 (Elite) · Elo 2532
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Madrid
2nd in La Liga · 22 pts from 9
- 17 OctWEspanyol La Liga2372
- 13 OctWManchester United UEFA Champions League2396
- 10 OctWAlaves La Liga2348
- 20 SepWReal Madrid La Liga2353
- 16 SepWOsasuna La Liga2327
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 17 OctWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2504
- 13 OctDViking UEFA Champions League2468
- 10 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga2548
- 18 SepWUnion Berlin Bundesliga2566
- 13 SepWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2465
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 3 /2 | 13.7 | 31.6 | 63.1 | 5.2 |
| Bayern München | 4 /2 | 15.3 | 56.4 | 42.4 | 1.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Madrid: possession-based (how Diego Pablo Simeone González plays) · Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays)