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Serie A · Regular Season - 6

Atalanta 3–1 Venezia

Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo

Atalanta crestAtalantaTeam 2194
3–1
Full time
HT 3–1
Venezia crestVeneziaTeam 1883

Match story

Atalanta · draw · Venezia

Before kick-off: 67% · 21% · 13%

Live chances: Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0% at 90+4'2' · 0–0 · Atalanta 66%, draw 21%, Venezia 13%3' · 0–0 · Atalanta 66%, draw 21%, Venezia 13%4' · 0–0 · Atalanta 66%, draw 21%, Venezia 13%5' · 1–0 · Atalanta 86%, draw 10%, Venezia 4%6' · 1–0 · Atalanta 86%, draw 10%, Venezia 4%8' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%9' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%10' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%11' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%12' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%13' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%14' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%15' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%16' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%17' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%18' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%19' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%20' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%21' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%22' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%23' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%24' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%25' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%26' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%27' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%28' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%29' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%30' · 2–0 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 1%31' · 3–0 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%32' · 3–0 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%33' · 3–0 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%34' · 3–0 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%35' · 3–0 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%36' · 3–0 · Atalanta 99%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%37' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%38' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%39' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%40' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%41' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%42' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%43' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%44' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 3%, Venezia 0%45' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%45+1' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%45+2' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%HT · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%46' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%47' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%48' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%49' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%50' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%51' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%52' · 3–1 · Atalanta 97%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%53' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%54' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%55' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%56' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%57' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%58' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%59' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%60' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%61' · 3–2 · Atalanta 85%, draw 13%, Venezia 2%62' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%63' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%64' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%65' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%66' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%67' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 2%, Venezia 0%68' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%69' · 3–1 · Atalanta 98%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%70' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%71' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%72' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%73' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%74' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%75' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%76' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%77' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%78' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%79' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%80' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%81' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%82' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%83' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%84' · 3–1 · Atalanta 99%, draw 1%, Venezia 0%85' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%86' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%87' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%88' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%89' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%90' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%90+1' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%90+2' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%90+3' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%90+4' · 3–1 · Atalanta 100%, draw 0%, Venezia 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Atalanta 67% to win: they did.

  1. 4'Atalanta:Franck Kessié 2243 +10* assist Nikola Krstović 2221 +26
  2. 6'Atalanta:Nikola Krstović 2221 +26 assist Elif Elmas 2186 +28
  3. 8'Venezia:Richie Sagrado 1850 −8* for Thierry Correia 1915 −8*
  4. 18'Venezia:Matias Moreno 2010 −11*
  5. 30'Atalanta:Nikola Krstović 2221 +26
  6. 37'Venezia:Antoine Hainaut 1939 −12* assist Richie Sagrado 1850 −8*
  7. 42'Venezia:Juan Jesus 2067 −21*
  8. 60'Atalanta:Lazar Samardzic 2177 +7 for Charles De Ketelaere 2330 +11
  9. 67'Atalanta:Sead Kolašinac 2169 −2 for Giorgio Scalvini 2278 +6
  10. 67'Atalanta:Lorenzo Bernasconi 1994 −3* for Raoul Bellanova 2219 +11*
  11. 76'Atalanta:Nicola Zalewski 2282 +1 for Jonathan Rowe 2102 +4*
  12. 76'Atalanta:Gianluca Gaetano 2126 −6* for Franck Kessié 2243 +10*
  13. 83'Venezia:Thorir Johann Helgason 1712 −8* for Toma Bašić 1981 −13*
  14. 83'Venezia:Joël Schingtienne 1968 −8* for Matias Moreno 2010 −11*
  15. 83'Venezia:Lion Lauberbach 1768 −9* for Akor Adams 2027 −14*
  16. 87'Venezia:Albion Rrahmani 1967 0 for Simon Sohm 1976 −11*
  17. 89'Atalanta:Elif Elmas 2186 +28

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-5-2
GF. Stanković1961−14*
DR. Halhal1861−8*
DJuan Jesus2067−21*
DM. Moreno2010−11*
MA. Hainaut1939−12*
MKike Pérez1937−14*
MS. Sohm1976−11*
MT. Bašić1981−13*
MThierry Correia1915−8*
FJ. Yeboah1992−11*
FA. Adams2027−14*
CG. Stroppa1943−11*
Before kick-off: 67% · 21% · 13%(Atalanta · draw · Venezia)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 3–1 had 7%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Atalanta €20.7M, Venezia €4.3M.
  • Atalanta were without 1 expected starter: O. Kossounou (2222).
  • Venezia were without 2 expected starters: A. Bella-Kotchap (1873) and G. Busio (1981).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Atalanta

11th in Serie A · 6 pts from 5

  • 20 SepLJuventus 2179
  • 12 SepLCagliari 2221
  • 5 SepLAS Roma 2232
  • 31 AugWBologna 2205
  • 27 AugWHapoel Tel Aviv 2202

Venezia

20th in Serie A · 0 pts from 5

  • 19 SepLLazio 1970
  • 11 SepLFiorentina 1964
  • 6 SepLFrosinone 1956
  • 2 SepLUdinese 1822
  • 28 AugLAC Milan 1972

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Atalanta6 /559.5<1%12%0%8th
Venezia0 /531.90%0%66%20th
Atalanta
Venezia

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

G. Scalvini
G. Scalvini

Atalanta · +3.9 (Good) · Elo 2272

J. Yeboah
J. Yeboah

Venezia · +1.4 (Average) · Elo 2003

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Maurizio Sarri

Coach DNA: possession-based

Giovanni Stroppa

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Atalanta: creative (how Maurizio Sarri plays) · Venezia: balanced profile (how Giovanni Stroppa plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.