Serie A · Regular Season - 10
Atalanta vs Parma
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Atalanta host Parma on Mon 2 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atalanta 61%, draw 23%, Parma 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atalanta €17.4M, Parma €5.4M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atalanta goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Atalanta 2187 · Parma 1943
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atalanta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2325
Parma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1987
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atalanta
10th in Serie A · 9 pts from 7
- 18 OctLAC Milan Serie A2175
- 15 OctWPafos UEFA Conference League2168
- 12 OctWVenezia Serie A2195
- 20 SepLJuventus Serie A2179
- 12 SepLCagliari Serie A2221
Parma
16th in Serie A · 4 pts from 6
- 10 OctLInter Serie A1948
- 20 SepWGenoa Serie A1916
- 14 SepLComo Serie A1909
- 6 SepDMonza Serie A1978
- 29 AugLJuventus Serie A1922
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 9 /7 | 57.8 | <1% | 7% | 0% | 8th |
| Parma | 4 /6 | 35.3 | 0% | 0% | 48% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atalanta: creative (how Maurizio Sarri plays) · Parma: balanced profile (how Alberto Gilardino plays)