UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1
Atalanta 3–1 Pafos
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo
AtalantaTeam 2166PafosTeam 1764Match story
Atalanta · draw · PafosBefore kick-off: 76% · 16% · 8%
Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- E. Elmas 1'
- G. Raspadori 18' (pen)
- G. Scamacca 44'
- Biel 88'
We gave Atalanta 76% to win: they did.
- E. Elmas 2197 +11 assist G. Raspadori 2235 −6*1'Atalanta:E. Elmas 2197 +11 assist G. Raspadori 2235 −6*
- G. Raspadori 2235 −6* (pen.)18'Atalanta:G. Raspadori 2235 −6* (pen.)
- C. De Ketelaere 2335 +5 for G. Raspadori 2235 −6*21'Atalanta:C. De Ketelaere 2335 +5 for G. Raspadori 2235 −6*
- 37'K. Sema 1650 −5 for David Luiz 1526 −14Pafos:K. Sema 1650 −5 for David Luiz 1526 −14
- G. Scamacca 2238 +9 assist C. De Ketelaere 2335 +544'Atalanta:G. Scamacca 2238 +9 assist C. De Ketelaere 2335 +5
- 46'A. Brito 1844 −8* for D. Quina 1852 −1Pafos:A. Brito 1844 −8* for D. Quina 1852 −1
- 46'J. Correia 1747 −10* for Bruno 1763 −11*Pafos:J. Correia 1747 −10* for Bruno 1763 −11*
- 50'R. Sa PintoPafos:R. Sa Pinto
- Ederson 2195 0 for M. Pasalic 2118 +767'Atalanta:Ederson 2195 0 for M. Pasalic 2118 +7
- L. Samardzic 2178 +1 for N. Zalewski 2288 +667'Atalanta:L. Samardzic 2178 +1 for N. Zalewski 2288 +6
- 69'Guga 1746 −9* for Pepe 1812 −2Pafos:Guga 1746 −9* for Pepe 1812 −2
- 69'Anderson Silva 1728 −9* for Lele 1710 −1Pafos:Anderson Silva 1728 −9* for Lele 1710 −1
- J. Idele 1784 −6* for T. Kristensen 2128 +1280'Atalanta:J. Idele 1784 −6* for T. Kristensen 2128 +12
- 88'Biel 1910 −4 assist Anderson Silva 1728 −9*Pafos:Biel 1910 −4 assist Anderson Silva 1728 −9*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 76% · 16% · 8%(Atalanta · draw · Pafos)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 3–1 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Atalanta €14.5M, Pafos €1.4M.
- Draw chance was 16%, below the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
- 1. Division: R. Majecki was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2005).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atalanta
10th in Serie A · 9 pts from 6
- 12 OctWVenezia Serie A2195
- 20 SepLJuventus Serie A2179
- 12 SepLCagliari Serie A2221
- 5 SepLAS Roma Serie A2232
- 31 AugWBologna Serie A2205
Pafos
4th in 1. Division · 10 pts from 5
- 11 OctWAnorthosis Cypriot First Division1799
- 18 SepLAEL Cypriot First Division1774
- 13 SepWAEK Larnaca Cypriot First Division1757
- 7 SepDOlympiakos Cypriot First Division1783
- 30 AugWKarmiotissa Cypriot First Division1788
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 0 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 0 /0 | 13.7 | 80.7 | 18.8 | 0.5 |
| Pafos | 0 /0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 56.1 | 36.2 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atalanta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2126
Pafos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1819
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atalanta: creative (how Maurizio Sarri plays) · Pafos: balanced profile (how Ricardo Manuel Andrade e Silva Sá Pinto plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.