UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Atalanta host Kairat Almaty on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atalanta 86%, draw 10%, Kairat Almaty 4%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atalanta €19.1M, Kairat Almaty €491K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the UEFA Europa Conference League League Stage - 3: 576 points.
- Draw chance 10%, below the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atalanta goals first.
- 3–010%
- 2–09%
- 4–09%
- 3–18%
- 2–17%
- 4–17%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl3–0expected 5.7 pts
Team Elo: Atalanta 2183 · Kairat Almaty 1607
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atalanta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.9 (Good) · Elo 2278
Kairat Almaty · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1632
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atalanta
11th in Serie A · 9 pts from 7
- 22 OctLAjax UEFA Conference League2178
- 18 OctLAC Milan Serie A2175
- 15 OctWPafos UEFA Conference League2168
- 12 OctWVenezia Serie A2195
- 20 SepLJuventus Serie A2179
Kairat Almaty
2nd in Premier League · 63 pts from 27
- 22 OctLPanathinaikos UEFA Conference League1592
- 18 OctWIrtysh Kazakhstan Premier League1592
- 15 OctDRiga UEFA Conference League1629
- 17 SepLFC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League1619
- 13 SepLFK Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League1641
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 3 /2 | 12.9 | 73.0 | 26.8 | 0.2 |
| Kairat Almaty | 1 /2 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 17.6 | 82.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –