Serie A · Regular Season - 8
Atalanta vs Frosinone
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Atalanta host Frosinone on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atalanta 52%, draw 26%, Frosinone 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atalanta €17.4M, Frosinone €5.3M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atalanta goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: Atalanta 2187 · Frosinone 2033
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atalanta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2325
Frosinone · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2136
Absences
Atalanta
Ruled out
- I. HienMuscle Bruise2308
- K. SulemanaJumpers Knee2019
Frosinone
None reported
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atalanta
10th in Serie A · 9 pts from 7
- 18 OctLAC Milan Serie A2175
- 15 OctWPafos UEFA Conference League2168
- 12 OctWVenezia Serie A2195
- 20 SepLJuventus Serie A2179
- 12 SepLCagliari Serie A2221
Frosinone
6th in Serie A · 13 pts from 7
- 16 OctWSassuolo Serie A2058
- 10 OctLNapoli Serie A2072
- 20 SepWComo Serie A2044
- 12 SepDGenoa Serie A2031
- 6 SepWVenezia Serie A2002
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 9 /7 | 57.8 | <1% | 7% | 0% | 8th |
| Frosinone | 13 /7 | 49.7 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atalanta: creative (how Maurizio Sarri plays) · Frosinone: balanced profile (how Massimiliano Alvini plays)