UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Aston Villa vs Viking
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa host Viking on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aston Villa 79%, draw 14%, Viking 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aston Villa €27.7M, Viking €2.4M.
- Draw chance 14%, below the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
- Viking are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aston Villa goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–18%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- 1–06%
- Other scores51%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–1expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.4 pts
Team Elo: Aston Villa 2375 · Viking 1917
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2410
Viking · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Elite) · Elo 1986
Absences
Aston Villa
Ruled out
- M. RuggeriInjury2511
- A. OnanaKnee Injury2474
- T. Harwood-BellisOff the roster2303
- Brian MadjoOff the roster1469
Doubtful
- J. ManzambiInjury2410
- I. MaatsenAnkle Injury2407
- A. Wan-BissakaMuscle Injury2336
- George HemmingsKnee Injury1418
Viking
Ruled out
- A. BærtelsenFoot Injury1800
- M. RosethKnee Injury1790
- S. BjørsholKnee Injury1775
- V. BerishaThigh Injury1607
Doubtful
- K. HaugenLeg Injury1931
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aston Villa
12th in Premier League · 8 pts from 7
- 17 OctWNewcastle Premier League2328
- 14 OctWFenerbahçe UEFA Champions League2325
- 10 OctDBrentford Premier League2394
- 19 SepWTottenham Premier League2344
- 16 SepWCoventry England League Cup2121
Viking
2nd in Eliteserien · 56 pts from 23
- 17 OctWFredrikstad Eliteserien1866
- 13 OctDBayern München UEFA Champions League1949
- 9 OctWBrann Eliteserien1941
- 20 SepWLillestrom Eliteserien1929
- 13 SepWKristiansund BK Eliteserien1911
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 6 /2 | 15.8 | 62.3 | 37.0 | 0.7 |
| Viking | 1 /2 | 6.4 | 0.1 | 17.0 | 82.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery Etxegoien plays) · Viking: balanced profile (how Bjarte Andre Lunde Aarsheim plays)