UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2
Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston VillaTeam 2309FenerbahçeTeam 2286Match story
Aston Villa · draw · FenerbahçeBefore kick-off: 47% · 27% · 26%
Last reading, 90+1': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Johan Manzambi 12'
- Nicolas Jackson 31', 39'
- Ross Barkley 68' (pen)
- Ross Barkley 72'
- Tammy Abraham 90'
We gave Aston Villa 47% to win: they did.
- Johan Manzambi 2380 +2912'Aston Villa:Johan Manzambi 2380 +29
- Nicolas Jackson 2501 +19 assist Boubacar Kamara 2503 +1731'Aston Villa:Nicolas Jackson 2501 +19 assist Boubacar Kamara 2503 +17
- Nicolas Jackson 2501 +19 assist Ross Barkley 2075 +6139'Aston Villa:Nicolas Jackson 2501 +19 assist Ross Barkley 2075 +61
- 42'Mattéo Guendouzi 2332 −10Fenerbahçe:Mattéo Guendouzi 2332 −10
- Ross Barkley 2075 +61 (pen.)68'Aston Villa:Ross Barkley 2075 +61 (pen.)
- 69'Bartuğ Elmaz 1892 0 for Ismail Yüksek 2260 −4Fenerbahçe:Bartuğ Elmaz 1892 0 for Ismail Yüksek 2260 −4
- 69'Romelu Lukaku 2133 −5 for Vedat Muriqi 2142 −4Fenerbahçe:Romelu Lukaku 2133 −5 for Vedat Muriqi 2142 −4
- 69'Nene Dorgeles 2236 −8* for Mason Greenwood 2318 −6Fenerbahçe:Nene Dorgeles 2236 −8* for Mason Greenwood 2318 −6
- Ross Barkley 2075 +61 assist Ibrahim Mbaye 2159 +5472'Aston Villa:Ross Barkley 2075 +61 assist Ibrahim Mbaye 2159 +54
- Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 1784 +19 for Boubacar Kamara 2503 +1773'Aston Villa: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 1784 +19 for Boubacar Kamara 2503 +17
- João Gomes 2236 +6 for Johan Manzambi 2380 +2973'Aston Villa:João Gomes 2236 +6 for Johan Manzambi 2380 +29
- 78'Oğuz Aydın 2233 −2Fenerbahçe:Oğuz Aydın 2233 −2
- Tammy Abraham 2190 −2* for Nicolas Jackson 2501 +1978'Aston Villa:Tammy Abraham 2190 −2* for Nicolas Jackson 2501 +19
- Alejandro Garnacho 2386 −6* for Ibrahim Mbaye 2159 +5479'Aston Villa:Alejandro Garnacho 2386 −6* for Ibrahim Mbaye 2159 +54
- Leon Goretzka 2407 −10* for Ross Barkley 2075 +6183'Aston Villa:Leon Goretzka 2407 −10* for Ross Barkley 2075 +61
- Tammy Abraham 2190 −2* assist Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 1784 +1990'Aston Villa:Tammy Abraham 2190 −2* assist Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 1784 +19
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 47% · 27% · 26%(Aston Villa · draw · Fenerbahçe)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 6–0 had <1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Aston Villa €28.3M, Fenerbahçe €9.6M.
- Aston Villa were without 2 expected starters: I. Maatsen (2407) and George Hemmings (1418).
- Süper Lig: Ederson was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2431).
- Fenerbahçe's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aston Villa
16th in Premier League · 5 pts from 6
- 10 OctDBrentford Premier League2394
- 19 SepWTottenham Premier League2344
- 16 SepWCoventry England League Cup2121
- 12 SepLNottingham Forest Premier League2238
- 8 SepWClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League2233
Fenerbahçe
4th in Süper Lig · 13 pts from 7
- 10 OctWRizespor Turkey Super Lig2289
- 20 SepWEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig2257
- 14 SepDGaziantep FK Turkey Super Lig2301
- 10 SepDAS Roma UEFA Champions League2259
- 5 SepLBeşiktaş Turkey Super Lig2269
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 3 /1 | 14.4 | 42.0 | 53.4 | 4.6 |
| Fenerbahçe | 1 /1 | 12.0 | 18.2 | 65.9 | 15.8 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2351
Fenerbahçe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.5 (Good) · Elo 2339
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery Etxegoien plays) · Fenerbahçe: shot-heavy · creative (how İsmail Kartal plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.