UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Rome
AS Roma host Slovan Bratislava on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AS Roma 83%, draw 12%, Slovan Bratislava 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AS Roma €18.6M, Slovan Bratislava €841K.
- AS Roma are without 2 expected starters: P. Dybala (2253) and M. Koné (2450).
- Slovan Bratislava are without 1 expected starter: A. Šporar (1739).
- Draw chance 12%, below the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AS Roma goals first.
- 3–010%
- 2–09%
- 4–08%
- 3–18%
- 2–18%
- 4–17%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl3–0expected 5.6 pts
Team Elo: AS Roma 2263 · Slovan Bratislava 1740
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: E. Lulli for P. Dybala, N. Pisilli for M. Koné, R. Ibrahim for A. Šporar.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AS Roma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2338
Slovan Bratislava · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1738
Absences
AS Roma
Ruled out
- M. KonéMuscle Injury2450
- M. SvilarToe Injury2385
- B. CristanteKnee Injury2312
- P. DybalaCalf Injury2253
Slovan Bratislava
Ruled out
- M. KukharevychInjury1759
- A. ŠporarIllness1739
- Manasse KiangaOff the roster1557
- A. GrigerOff the roster1539
- R. ČerepkaiBack Injury1518
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AS Roma
3rd in Serie A · 17 pts from 7
- 17 OctWGenoa Serie A2178
- 14 OctLReal Madrid UEFA Champions League2300
- 11 OctDComo Serie A2294
- 19 SepDInter Serie A2341
- 14 SepWTorino Serie A2282
Slovan Bratislava
4th in Super Liga · 20 pts from 10
- 17 OctWSpartak Trnava Slovak Super Liga1739
- 14 OctLVfB Stuttgart UEFA Champions League1746
- 10 OctDSkalica Slovak Super Liga1723
- 19 SepWKomárno Slovak Super Liga1736
- 13 SepDŽilina Slovak Super Liga1743
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 1 /2 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 68.4 | 26.1 |
| Slovan Bratislava | 0 /2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 98.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AS Roma: possession-based (how Gian Piero Gasperini plays) · Slovan Bratislava: possession-based (how Yaya Toure plays)