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UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid

Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Rome

AS Roma crestAS RomaTeam 2316
3–4
Full time
HT 1–1
Real Madrid crestReal MadridTeam 2532

Match story

AS Roma · draw · Real Madrid

Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 44%

Live chances: AS Roma 0%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 98% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 28%, Real Madrid 44%2' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 28%, Real Madrid 44%3' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 28%, Real Madrid 44%4' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 28%, Real Madrid 44%5' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 28%, Real Madrid 44%6' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 28%, Real Madrid 43%7' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 29%, Real Madrid 43%8' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 29%, Real Madrid 43%9' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 29%, Real Madrid 43%11' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 29%, Real Madrid 43%13' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 30%, Real Madrid 43%14' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 30%, Real Madrid 42%15' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 30%, Real Madrid 42%16' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 30%, Real Madrid 42%17' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 30%, Real Madrid 42%18' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 30%, Real Madrid 42%19' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 31%, Real Madrid 42%20' · 0–0 · AS Roma 28%, draw 31%, Real Madrid 41%21' · 1–0 · AS Roma 58%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 18%22' · 1–0 · AS Roma 58%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 17%23' · 1–0 · AS Roma 58%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 17%24' · 1–0 · AS Roma 58%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 17%25' · 1–0 · AS Roma 59%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 17%26' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 32%, Real Madrid 40%27' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 32%, Real Madrid 40%28' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 32%, Real Madrid 40%29' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 33%, Real Madrid 40%30' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 33%, Real Madrid 40%31' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 33%, Real Madrid 40%32' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 33%, Real Madrid 39%33' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 34%, Real Madrid 39%34' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 34%, Real Madrid 39%35' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 34%, Real Madrid 39%36' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 35%, Real Madrid 39%37' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 35%, Real Madrid 38%38' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 35%, Real Madrid 38%39' · 1–1 · AS Roma 27%, draw 36%, Real Madrid 38%40' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 36%, Real Madrid 38%41' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 36%, Real Madrid 37%42' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 37%, Real Madrid 37%43' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 37%, Real Madrid 37%44' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 37%, Real Madrid 37%45' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 38%, Real Madrid 36%45+1' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 38%, Real Madrid 36%45+2' · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 38%, Real Madrid 36%HT · 1–1 · AS Roma 26%, draw 39%, Real Madrid 36%46' · 1–1 · AS Roma 25%, draw 39%, Real Madrid 35%47' · 1–1 · AS Roma 25%, draw 39%, Real Madrid 35%48' · 1–1 · AS Roma 25%, draw 40%, Real Madrid 35%49' · 1–1 · AS Roma 25%, draw 40%, Real Madrid 35%50' · 1–1 · AS Roma 25%, draw 41%, Real Madrid 34%51' · 2–1 · AS Roma 65%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 10%52' · 2–1 · AS Roma 66%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 10%53' · 2–1 · AS Roma 66%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 10%55' · 2–1 · AS Roma 67%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 9%56' · 2–1 · AS Roma 67%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 9%57' · 2–1 · AS Roma 68%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 8%58' · 3–1 · AS Roma 93%, draw 6%, Real Madrid 1%59' · 3–1 · AS Roma 93%, draw 6%, Real Madrid 1%60' · 3–1 · AS Roma 94%, draw 5%, Real Madrid 1%61' · 3–1 · AS Roma 94%, draw 5%, Real Madrid 1%62' · 3–1 · AS Roma 94%, draw 5%, Real Madrid 1%63' · 3–1 · AS Roma 94%, draw 5%, Real Madrid 1%64' · 3–1 · AS Roma 95%, draw 5%, Real Madrid 1%65' · 3–1 · AS Roma 95%, draw 5%, Real Madrid 1%66' · 3–1 · AS Roma 95%, draw 4%, Real Madrid 1%67' · 3–1 · AS Roma 95%, draw 4%, Real Madrid 1%68' · 3–1 · AS Roma 95%, draw 4%, Real Madrid 1%69' · 3–1 · AS Roma 96%, draw 4%, Real Madrid 1%70' · 3–1 · AS Roma 96%, draw 4%, Real Madrid 0%72' · 3–1 · AS Roma 96%, draw 3%, Real Madrid 0%73' · 3–1 · AS Roma 97%, draw 3%, Real Madrid 0%74' · 3–1 · AS Roma 97%, draw 3%, Real Madrid 0%75' · 3–1 · AS Roma 97%, draw 3%, Real Madrid 0%77' · 3–1 · AS Roma 97%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 0%78' · 3–1 · AS Roma 98%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 0%79' · 3–1 · AS Roma 98%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 0%80' · 3–1 · AS Roma 98%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 0%81' · 3–1 · AS Roma 98%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 0%82' · 3–1 · AS Roma 98%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 0%83' · 3–1 · AS Roma 99%, draw 1%, Real Madrid 0%84' · 3–2 · AS Roma 84%, draw 14%, Real Madrid 1%85' · 3–3 · AS Roma 12%, draw 74%, Real Madrid 15%86' · 3–3 · AS Roma 11%, draw 75%, Real Madrid 14%88' · 3–3 · AS Roma 9%, draw 79%, Real Madrid 12%89' · 3–3 · AS Roma 9%, draw 81%, Real Madrid 10%90' · 3–3 · AS Roma 8%, draw 83%, Real Madrid 9%90+1' · 3–4 · AS Roma 0%, draw 7%, Real Madrid 92%90+2' · 3–4 · AS Roma 0%, draw 6%, Real Madrid 94%90+3' · 3–4 · AS Roma 0%, draw 5%, Real Madrid 95%90+4' · 3–4 · AS Roma 0%, draw 4%, Real Madrid 96%90+5' · 3–4 · AS Roma 0%, draw 2%, Real Madrid 98%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 2% · 98%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Real Madrid 44% to win: they did.

  1. 17'AS Roma:Niccolò Pisilli 2221 0 for Manu Koné 2450 −2
  2. 20'AS Roma:Marten de Roon 2018 −8 assist Matias Soule 2309 −7
  3. 25'Real Madrid:Kylian Mbappé 2558 +28 assist Yan Diomande 2383 +42
  4. 45'AS Roma:Rodrigo Mora 2157 −8* for Paulo Dybala 2253 −5
  5. 51'AS Roma:Donyell Malen 2338 −15 assist Rodrigo Mora 2157 −8*
  6. 57'AS Roma:Donyell Malen 2338 −15 assist Matias Soule 2309 −7
  7. 59'Real Madrid:Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa 2189 +16* for Vinícius 2516 +8
  8. 59'Real Madrid:Arda Güler 2373 +16 for Denzel Dumfries 2435 +8
  9. 60'AS Roma:Gianluca Mancini 2395 −8
  10. 63'AS Roma:Lorenzo Pellegrini 2158 −2 for Matias Soule 2309 −7
  11. 63'AS Roma:Leonardo Balerdi 2247 −1 for Gianluca Mancini 2395 −8
  12. 69'AS Roma:Wesley Vinícius França Lima 2329 −5
  13. 70'Real Madrid:Bernardo Silva 2520 −1 for Aurelien Tchouameni 2532 +8
  14. 78'Real Madrid:Álvaro Fernández Carreras 2429 +2 for Marc Cucurella 2592 +7
  15. 78'Real Madrid:Carlos Espí 1864 +7* for Yan Diomande 2383 +42
  16. 81'AS Roma:Konstantinos Koulierakis 2054 0 for Mario Hermoso 2295 −6
  17. 83'Real Madrid:Carlos Espí 1864 +7*
  18. 85'Real Madrid:Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa 2189 +16* assist Arda Güler 2373 +16
  19. 89'AS Roma:Lorenzo Pellegrini 2158 −2
  20. 90'Real Madrid:Antonio Rüdiger 2391 +43 assist Arda Güler 2373 +16
  21. 90+6'Real Madrid:Álvaro Fernández Carreras 2429 +2

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GP. Gollini1979−1
DG. Mancini2395−8
DE. Ndicka2336−5
DHermoso2295−6
MN. Molina2415−10
MM. de Roon2018−8
MM. Koné2450−2
MWesley2329−5
MP. Dybala2253−5
MM. Soulé2309−7
FD. Malen2338−15
CG. Gasperini2334−9
GT. Courtois2491+10
DD. Dumfries2435+8
DI. Konaté2457+14
DA. Rüdiger2391+43
DMarc Cucurella2592+7
MF. Valverde2498+12
MA. Tchouaméni2532+8
MY. Diomande2383+42
MJ. Bellingham2557+10
MKylian Mbappé2558+28
FVinícius Júnior2516+8
CJosé Mourinho2410+31
Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 44%(AS Roma · draw · Real Madrid)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–4 had <1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: AS Roma €20.3M, Real Madrid €52.7M.
  • AS Roma were without 2 expected starters: M. Svilar (2385) and B. Cristante (2312).
  • Serie A: M. Koné was the highest-rated midfielder (2452).
  • Real Madrid's expected eleven was in form: average +3.0 over 180 days.
  • AS Roma were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

AS Roma

3rd in Serie A · 14 pts from 6

  • 11 OctDComo 2294
  • 19 SepDInter 2341
  • 14 SepWTorino 2282
  • 10 SepDFenerbahçe 2326
  • 5 SepWAtalanta 2277

Real Madrid

4th in La Liga · 18 pts from 8

  • 10 OctWVillarreal 2449
  • 20 SepLAtletico Madrid 2494
  • 15 SepWElche 2475
  • 12 SepWRayo Vallecano 2453
  • 8 SepWInter 2476

League phase outlook

From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).

ClubPtsPred. ptsTop 8Play-offOut
AS Roma1 /112.118.567.314.2
Real Madrid3 /116.671.727.50.8

Full league phase and chances: Champions League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

M. Koné
M. Koné

AS Roma · +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 2452

J. Bellingham
J. Bellingham

Real Madrid · +7.9 (Elite) · Elo 2546

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Gian Piero Gasperini

Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy

José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

AS Roma: possession-based (how Gian Piero Gasperini plays) · Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.