UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal host Borussia Dortmund on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Arsenal 69%, draw 19%, Borussia Dortmund 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Arsenal €52.8M, Borussia Dortmund €28.1M.
- Premier League: David Raya is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2707).
- Bundesliga: G. Kobel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2494).
- Arsenal's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.7 over 180 days.
- Borussia Dortmund's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Arsenal goals first.
- 2–013%
- 1–012%
- 2–110%
- 3–09%
- 1–19%
- 3–17%
- Other scores40%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.1 pts
Team Elo: Arsenal 2612 · Borussia Dortmund 2308
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Arsenal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.6 (Elite) · Elo 2679
Borussia Dortmund · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Elite) · Elo 2463
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Arsenal
1st in Premier League · 27 pts from 10
- 7 NovWHull City Premier League2613
- 4 NovWSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League2617
- 1 NovWLiverpool Premier League2604
- 27 OctDFleetwood Town England League Cup2289
- 24 OctWEverton Premier League2617
Borussia Dortmund
2nd in Bundesliga · 21 pts from 9
- 7 NovWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2309
- 4 NovWReal Betis UEFA Champions League2380
- 31 OctDBayern München Bundesliga2336
- 27 OctWWerder Bremen Germany DFB Pokal2329
- 24 OctWEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2350
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 10 /4 | 18.8 | 92.4 | 7.6 | 0.0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 9 /4 | 14.2 | 23.2 | 75.8 | 1.0 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Arsenal: balanced profile (how Mikel Arteta plays) · Borussia Dortmund: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Niko Kovač plays)