UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ararat-Armenia 13%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 67%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ararat-Armenia €304K, AZ Alkmaar €4.8M.
- Premier League: A. Serobyan is the highest-rated forward (1727).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ararat-Armenia goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–210%
- 1–19%
- 0–19%
- 0–38%
- 1–37%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Ararat-Armenia 1564 · AZ Alkmaar 2066
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ararat-Armenia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1727
AZ Alkmaar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 2140
Absences
AZ Alkmaar
Ruled out
- K. SmitInjury2159
- J. HornkampInjury1814
- H. VerhulstOff the roster1789
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ararat-Armenia
2nd in Premier League · 23 pts from 10
- 15 OctLJagiellonia UEFA Europa League1597
- 16 SepLSparta Praha UEFA Europa League1599
- 27 AugWUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1569
- 20 AugDUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1557
- 11 AugLCelje UEFA Champions League1601
AZ Alkmaar
2nd in Eredivisie · 20 pts from 9
- 18 OctDCambuur Eredivisie2080
- 15 OctWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League2012
- 10 OctLFeyenoord Eredivisie2093
- 20 SepWTelstar Eredivisie2111
- 16 SepLSunderland UEFA Europa League2090
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia | 0 /2 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 93.2 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 3 /2 | 12.4 | 16.2 | 74.5 | 9.4 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based