Primera División · Clausura - 17
Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
Alianza Lima host FC Cajamarca on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alianza Lima 67%, draw 20%, FC Cajamarca 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alianza Lima €689K, FC Cajamarca €206K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera División Clausura - 17: 317 points.
- Draw chance 20%, below the Primera División average of 27% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alianza Lima goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Alianza Lima 1762 · FC Cajamarca 1445
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alianza Lima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 1849
FC Cajamarca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1564
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alianza Lima
1st in Primera División · 65 pts from 31
- 29 OctLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1758
- 25 OctWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1767
- 18 OctWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1764
- 11 OctWCusco Peru Primera Division1751
- 19 SepWADT Peru Primera Division1752
FC Cajamarca
16th in Primera División · 28 pts from 31
- 28 OctLUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1430
- 25 OctLSport Boys Peru Primera Division1418
- 18 OctLUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1449
- 10 OctDADT Peru Primera Division1476
- 19 SepLCusco Peru Primera Division1492
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 65 /31 | 70.9 | 99% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| FC Cajamarca | 28 /31 | 30.4 | 0% | 0% | 87% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alianza Lima: balanced profile (how P. Guede plays) · FC Cajamarca: balanced profile (how C. Ayala plays)