Primera División · Clausura - 15
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
Alianza Lima host Cienciano on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alianza Lima 52%, draw 26%, Cienciano 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alianza Lima €685K, Cienciano €297K.
- Primera División: A. Duarte is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1781).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Primera División): Alianza Lima rank #2 of 18, Cienciano #15.
- Alianza Lima's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Cienciano's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alianza Lima goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Alianza Lima 1764 · Cienciano 1608
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alianza Lima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 1849
Cienciano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Average) · Elo 1684
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alianza Lima
1st in Primera División · 62 pts from 29
- 18 OctWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1764
- 11 OctWCusco Peru Primera Division1751
- 19 SepWADT Peru Primera Division1752
- 13 SepLUniversitario Peru Primera Division1737
- 6 SepDJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1747
Cienciano
5th in Primera División · 47 pts from 29
- 18 OctWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1587
- 8 OctWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1581
- 30 SepDClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1613
- 23 SepLADT Peru Primera Division1619
- 18 SepLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana1635
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 62 /29 | 71.5 | 99% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Cienciano | 47 /29 | 53.8 | 0% | 21% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alianza Lima: balanced profile (how Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero plays) · Cienciano: balanced profile (how Horacio Melgarejo plays)