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Primera División · Clausura - 12

Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 01:30 UTC · Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima

Alianza Lima crestAlianza LimaTeam 1803
3–1
Full time
HT 1–1
Atletico Grau crestAtletico GrauTeam 1477

Match story

Alianza Lima · draw · Atletico Grau

Before kick-off: 67% · 21% · 12%

Live chances: Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 67%, draw 21%, Atletico Grau 12%2' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 67%, draw 21%, Atletico Grau 12%3' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 67%, draw 21%, Atletico Grau 12%4' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 67%, draw 21%, Atletico Grau 12%5' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 66%, draw 21%, Atletico Grau 12%6' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 66%, draw 22%, Atletico Grau 12%7' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 66%, draw 22%, Atletico Grau 12%8' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 66%, draw 22%, Atletico Grau 12%9' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 65%, draw 22%, Atletico Grau 13%10' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 65%, draw 22%, Atletico Grau 13%11' · 0–0 · Alianza Lima 65%, draw 22%, Atletico Grau 13%12' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 4%13' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 4%14' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 4%15' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 4%16' · 2–0 · Alianza Lima 96%, draw 3%, Atletico Grau 1%17' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 4%18' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 4%19' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%20' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%21' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%22' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%23' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%24' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%25' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%26' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%27' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%28' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%29' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%30' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%31' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%32' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%33' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%34' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%35' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%36' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 4%37' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 4%38' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 4%39' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 4%40' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 4%41' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%42' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%43' · 1–0 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%44' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 55%, draw 31%, Atletico Grau 15%45' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 54%, draw 31%, Atletico Grau 15%45+1' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 54%, draw 31%, Atletico Grau 15%45+2' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 54%, draw 32%, Atletico Grau 15%HT · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 53%, draw 32%, Atletico Grau 15%46' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 53%, draw 32%, Atletico Grau 15%47' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 52%, draw 33%, Atletico Grau 15%48' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 52%, draw 33%, Atletico Grau 15%49' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 51%, draw 34%, Atletico Grau 15%50' · 1–1 · Alianza Lima 51%, draw 34%, Atletico Grau 15%51' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%52' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%53' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%54' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%55' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%56' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%57' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%58' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%59' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%60' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 3%61' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%62' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%63' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 84%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%64' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%65' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%66' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%67' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%68' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%69' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%70' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 85%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%71' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 86%, draw 13%, Atletico Grau 2%72' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 86%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 2%73' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 86%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 2%74' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 86%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 1%75' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 87%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 1%76' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 87%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 1%77' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 87%, draw 12%, Atletico Grau 1%78' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 87%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 1%79' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 88%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 1%80' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 88%, draw 11%, Atletico Grau 1%81' · 2–1 · Alianza Lima 89%, draw 10%, Atletico Grau 1%82' · 2–2 · Alianza Lima 25%, draw 64%, Atletico Grau 11%83' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 99%, draw 1%, Atletico Grau 0%84' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 99%, draw 1%, Atletico Grau 0%85' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 99%, draw 1%, Atletico Grau 0%86' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%87' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%88' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%89' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%90' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%90+1' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%90+2' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%90+3' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%90+4' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%90+5' · 3–1 · Alianza Lima 100%, draw 0%, Atletico Grau 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Alianza Lima 67% to win: they did.

  1. 11'Alianza Lima:Kevin Quevedo 1755 +13 assist Federico Girotti 1751 +29
  2. 33'Alianza Lima:Esteban Pavez 1690 −11*
  3. 44'Atletico Grau:Aldair Vásquez 1398 0 assist Gabriel Alfaro 1524 −4
  4. 45'Alianza Lima:Gaspar Gentile 1607 +5 for Kevin Quevedo 1755 +13
  5. 45'Alianza Lima:Jesús Castillo 1724 +3 for Esteban Pavez 1690 −11*
  6. 45+2'Alianza Lima:Kevin Quevedo 1755 +13
  7. 50'Alianza Lima:Erick Castillo 1814 +19
  8. 54'Alianza Lima:Gianfranco Chavez 1806 +3 for Mateo Antoni Pavon 1757 +6
  9. 61'Atletico Grau:Pablo Lavandeira 1413 −9 for Aldair Vásquez 1398 0
  10. 61'Atletico Grau:Nicolás Delgadillo 1453 −9* for Diego Barreto 1296 −13*
  11. 65'Atletico Grau:Adrián Fernández 1432 −6
  12. 77'Atletico Grau:Luis Benites 1541 −3 for Adrián Fernández 1432 −6
  13. 78'Atletico Grau:Yamir Ruidiaz Misitich 1180 0 for Rodrigo Tapia 1581 −11
  14. 81'Alianza Lima:Jairo Vélez 1813 +20
  15. 83'Alianza Lima:Jairo Vélez 1813 +20
  16. 85'Alianza Lima:Piero Cari 1543 −7* for Erick Castillo 1814 +19
  17. 87'Alianza Lima:Jesús Castillo 1724 +3
  18. 89'Atletico Grau:Elsar Rodas 1474 −4 for Gabriel Alfaro 1524 −4
  19. 90+3'Alianza Lima:Luis Ramos 1691 −8* for Federico Girotti 1751 +29

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-1-3-2Formations5-4-1
GA. Duarte1781+8
DL. Advíncula1700+4
DR. Garcés1849+18
DM. Antoni1757+6
DM. Huamán1886+6
ME. Pavez1690−11*
MF. Gaibor1737+24
MK. Quevedo1755+13
MJ. Vélez1813+20
FF. Girotti1751+29
FE. Castillo1814+19
CP. Guede1830+15
GP. Álvarez1543−7
DC. Vásquez1568−8
DR. Tapia1581−11
DL. Acevedo1538−20*
DI. Tapia1593−10
DG. Alfaro1524−4
MA. Vásquez13980
MF. Oncoy1481−2
MR. Guarderas1531−10
MD. Barreto1296−13*
FA. Fernández1432−6
CG. Ameli1557−13
Before kick-off: 67% · 21% · 12%(Alianza Lima · draw · Atletico Grau)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (12%); the result 3–1 had 7%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Alianza Lima €681K, Atletico Grau €240K.
  • Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera División Clausura - 12: 244 points.
  • Primera División: A. Duarte was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1773).
  • Style contrast in dribbling (Primera División): Alianza Lima ranked #2 of 18, Atletico Grau #16.
  • Alianza Lima's expected eleven was in form: average +2.7 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Alianza Lima

1st in Primera División · 59 pts from 28

  • 11 OctWCusco 1751
  • 19 SepWADT 1752
  • 13 SepLUniversitario 1737
  • 6 SepDJuan Pablo II College 1747
  • 30 AugLDeportivo Garcilaso 1729

Atletico Grau

13th in Primera División · 33 pts from 28

  • 8 OctDClub Deportivo Los Chankas 1478
  • 19 SepLSporting Cristal 1504
  • 13 SepWAlianza Atletico 1505
  • 6 SepLDeportivo Garcilaso 1515
  • 21 AugWFC Cajamarca 1508

Season outlook

From the Primera División simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Alianza Lima59 /2870.499%100%0%1st
Atletico Grau33 /2839.90%0%2%13th
Alianza Lima
Atletico Grau

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Primera División

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

R. Garcés
R. Garcés

Alianza Lima · +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 1831

P. Álvarez
P. Álvarez

Atletico Grau · +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1550

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Gerardo Pablo Ameli

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Alianza Lima: balanced profile (how Pablo Adrián Guede Barriero plays) · Atletico Grau: balanced profile (how Gerardo Pablo Ameli plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.