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Primera División · Clausura - 12

Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana

Alianza Atletico crestAlianza AtleticoTeam 1568
1–4
Full time
HT 0–3
Universitario crestUniversitarioTeam 1695

Match story

Alianza Atletico · draw · Universitario

Before kick-off: 27% · 29% · 44%

Live chances: Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100% at 90+4'2' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 29%, Universitario 44%3' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 29%, Universitario 44%4' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 29%, Universitario 44%5' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 29%, Universitario 44%6' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 44%7' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 44%8' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 44%9' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 43%10' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 43%11' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 43%12' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 43%13' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 30%, Universitario 43%14' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 31%, Universitario 43%15' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 31%, Universitario 43%16' · 0–1 · Alianza Atletico 13%, draw 22%, Universitario 65%17' · 0–0 · Alianza Atletico 27%, draw 31%, Universitario 42%18' · 0–1 · Alianza Atletico 13%, draw 22%, Universitario 65%19' · 0–1 · Alianza Atletico 13%, draw 22%, Universitario 65%20' · 0–1 · Alianza Atletico 12%, draw 22%, Universitario 65%21' · 0–1 · Alianza Atletico 12%, draw 22%, Universitario 65%22' · 0–1 · Alianza Atletico 12%, draw 22%, Universitario 65%23' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 3%, draw 9%, Universitario 89%24' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 3%, draw 9%, Universitario 89%25' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 3%, draw 8%, Universitario 89%26' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 89%27' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 89%28' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 89%29' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 89%30' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 90%31' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 90%32' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 90%33' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 90%34' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 90%35' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 90%36' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 90%37' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 8%, Universitario 91%38' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 91%39' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 91%40' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 91%41' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 91%42' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 91%44' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 91%45' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 92%45+1' · 0–2 · Alianza Atletico 2%, draw 7%, Universitario 92%45+1' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 98%45+2' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 98%HT · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 98%46' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 98%47' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 98%48' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%49' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%50' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%51' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%52' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%53' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%54' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%55' · 0–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 99%56' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 5%, Universitario 94%57' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 5%, Universitario 94%58' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 5%, Universitario 94%59' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 5%, Universitario 95%60' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 5%, Universitario 95%61' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 4%, Universitario 95%62' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 4%, Universitario 95%63' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 4%, Universitario 95%64' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 4%, Universitario 96%65' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 1%, draw 4%, Universitario 96%66' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 4%, Universitario 96%70' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 3%, Universitario 97%71' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 3%, Universitario 97%72' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 3%, Universitario 97%73' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 3%, Universitario 97%74' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 97%75' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 97%76' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 98%77' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 98%78' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 98%79' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 98%80' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 2%, Universitario 98%81' · 1–3 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 1%, Universitario 98%82' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%83' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%84' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%85' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%86' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%87' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%88' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%89' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%90' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%90+1' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%90+2' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%90+3' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%90+4' · 1–4 · Alianza Atletico 0%, draw 0%, Universitario 100%

Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score. Shaded: minutes without a reading.

We gave Universitario 44% to win: they did.

  1. 1'Universitario:Horacio Calcaterra 1349 +37
  2. 8'Alianza Atletico:Stefano Fernández 1587 −3
  3. 15'Universitario:Román Suárez 1620 −19* (own goal)
  4. 23'Universitario:Andy Polo 1806 +36 assist Edison Flores 1699 +34
  5. 42'Alianza Atletico:Ariel Muñoz 1490 0
  6. 45'Universitario:Alex Valera 1842 +26 assist Gianluca Lapadula 1536 +17
  7. 45'Alianza Atletico:Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas 1572 −2 for Stefano Fernández 1587 −3
  8. 45'Alianza Atletico:Jimmy Perez 1507 −8* for Jorge del Castillo 1595 −3
  9. 45'Alianza Atletico:Valentin Robaldo 1554 −9* for José María Ingratti 1553 −1
  10. 52'Universitario:Anderson Santamaría 1693 +37
  11. 56'Alianza Atletico:Ariel Muñoz 1490 0 assist Cristian Penilla 1574 −19
  12. 57'Universitario:Lisandro Alzugaray 1612 +2 for Edison Flores 1699 +34
  13. 66'Alianza Atletico:Erick Perleche 1617 −3 for Anthony Gordillo 1555 −6
  14. 67'Universitario:Jorge Murrugarra 1670 +4 for Jairo Concha 1789 +10
  15. 67'Universitario:José Rivera – for Gianluca Lapadula 1536 +17
  16. 75'Alianza Atletico:Jairo Molina 1525 −12* for Ariel Muñoz 1490 0
  17. 80'Universitario:Piero Quispe 1792 +2 for Alex Valera 1842 +26
  18. 81'Universitario:Héctor Fertoli 1542 −8* for Horacio Calcaterra 1349 +37
  19. 82'Universitario:Jose Lujan 1586 −8 (own goal)
  20. 90+2'Alianza Atletico:Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas 1572 −2

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-1-4-1Formations3-1-4-2
GS. Rivadeneyra1587−16*
DS. Fernández1587−3
DR. Suarez1620−19*
DJ. Luján1586−8
DA. Gordillo1555−6
MGermán Díaz1665−17
MA. Muñoz14900
MH. Lupú1645−13
MJ. del Castillo1595−3
MC. Penilla1574−19
FJ. Ingratti1553−1
CF. Urciuoli1576−10
GD. Romero1777+48
DA. Santamaría1693+37
DW. Riveros1747+13
DC. Fara1757+13
MÉ. Flores1699+34
MA. Polo1806+36
MH. Calcaterra1349+37
MJ. Concha1789+10
MC. Inga1801+14
FG. Lapadula1536+17
FA. Valera1842+26
CF. Bustos1839+22
Before kick-off: 27% · 29% · 44%(Alianza Atletico · draw · Universitario)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–4 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Alianza Atletico €368K, Universitario €721K.
  • Primera División: A. Valera was the highest-rated forward (1816).
  • Style contrast in discipline (Primera División): Alianza Atletico ranked #17 of 18, Universitario #4.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Alianza Atletico

8th in Primera División · 43 pts from 28

  • 11 OctWSport Boys 1570
  • 18 SepWComerciantes Unidos 1573
  • 13 SepLAtletico Grau 1572
  • 4 SepWUTC Cajamarca 1578
  • 30 AugWUCV Moquegua 1546

Universitario

3rd in Primera División · 50 pts from 28

  • 11 OctDFBC Melgar 1695
  • 19 SepLDeportivo Garcilaso 1759
  • 13 SepWAlianza Lima 1739
  • 6 SepDComerciantes Unidos 1743
  • 29 AugWUTC Cajamarca 1732

Season outlook

From the Primera División simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Alianza Atletico43 /2851.00%8%0%8th
Universitario50 /2860.7<1%95%0%2nd
Alianza Atletico
Universitario

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Primera División

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Germán Díaz
Germán Díaz

Alianza Atletico · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1683

J. Concha
J. Concha

Universitario · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1779

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Federico Urciuoli

Coach DNA: –

Fabián Daniel Bustos

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Alianza Atletico: direct (how Federico Urciuoli plays) · Universitario: creative (how Fabián Daniel Bustos plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.