Primera División · Clausura - 17
Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana
Alianza Atletico host FBC Melgar on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Alianza Atletico 26%, draw 28%, FBC Melgar 46%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Alianza Atletico €355K, FBC Melgar €562K.
- Style contrast in possession (Primera División): Alianza Atletico rank #17 of 18, FBC Melgar #2.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Alianza Atletico goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Alianza Atletico 1586 · FBC Melgar 1723
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Alianza Atletico · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1544
FBC Melgar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.2 (Good) · Elo 1782
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Alianza Atletico
8th in Primera División · 46 pts from 31
- 28 OctWDeportivo Garcilaso Peru Primera Division1557
- 24 OctLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1586
- 18 OctLUniversitario Peru Primera Division1596
- 11 OctWSport Boys Peru Primera Division1570
- 18 SepWComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1573
FBC Melgar
3rd in Primera División · 54 pts from 31
- 30 OctDComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1715
- 23 OctWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1709
- 17 OctWDeportivo Garcilaso Peru Primera Division1713
- 11 OctDUniversitario Peru Primera Division1727
- 20 SepDSport Boys Peru Primera Division1720
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 46 /31 | 50.1 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 8th |
| FBC Melgar | 54 /31 | 59.0 | 0% | 93% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Alianza Atletico: direct (how Federico Urciuoli plays) · FBC Melgar: balanced profile (how M. Rondelli plays)