UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
Ajax vs FC Thun
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax host FC Thun on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ajax 82%, draw 12%, FC Thun 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ajax €6.0M, FC Thun €1.0M.
- Draw chance 12%, below the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2317).
- Ajax's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.9 over 180 days.
- Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ajax goals first.
- 3–09%
- 2–08%
- 3–18%
- 4–08%
- 2–17%
- 4–17%
- Other scores53%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl3–0expected 5.4 pts
Team Elo: Ajax 2192 · FC Thun 1695
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2308
FC Thun · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1838
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ajax
3rd in Eredivisie · 25 pts from 12
- 8 NovDTwente Eredivisie2195
- 5 NovWFC Midtjylland UEFA Conference League2142
- 31 OctWAZ Alkmaar Eredivisie2150
- 25 OctWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie2131
- 22 OctWAtalanta UEFA Conference League2181
FC Thun
8th in Super League · 14 pts from 13
- 8 NovDFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League1715
- 5 NovWHeart Of Midlothian UEFA Conference League1735
- 1 NovWLausanne Swiss Super League1684
- 25 OctLFC Lugano Swiss Super League1657
- 22 OctLHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League1735
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 6 /3 | 12.6 | 69.3 | 30.6 | 0.1 |
| FC Thun | 3 /3 | 5.1 | 0.1 | 31.6 | 68.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ajax: possession-based (how Míchel plays) · FC Thun: balanced profile (how Luca Privitelli Gian plays)