UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2
Ajax vs Atalanta
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax host Atalanta on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ajax 42%, draw 29%, Atalanta 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ajax €6.4M, Atalanta €17.4M.
- Home advantage makes Ajax the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2291).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ajax goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Ajax 2162 · Atalanta 2187
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2203
Atalanta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2325
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ajax
4th in Eredivisie · 18 pts from 9
- 18 OctWGroningen Eredivisie2137
- 15 OctLHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League2076
- 10 OctDNEC Nijmegen Eredivisie2181
- 19 SepDExcelsior Eredivisie2179
- 15 SepWWillem II Eredivisie2137
Atalanta
10th in Serie A · 9 pts from 7
- 18 OctLAC Milan Serie A2175
- 15 OctWPafos UEFA Conference League2168
- 12 OctWVenezia Serie A2195
- 20 SepLJuventus Serie A2179
- 12 SepLCagliari Serie A2221
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 1 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 0 /1 | 9.8 | 25.5 | 65.3 | 9.2 |
| Atalanta | 3 /1 | 14.1 | 86.5 | 13.4 | 0.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ajax: possession-based (how Miguel Ángel Sánchez Muñoz plays) · Atalanta: creative (how Maurizio Sarri plays)