UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Allwyn Arena, Athens
AEK Athens FC host Real Madrid on Wed 4 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AEK Athens FC 17%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 59%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AEK Athens FC €5.0M, Real Madrid €63.9M.
- Super League 1: L. Jović is the highest-rated forward (2133).
- AEK Athens FC's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
- All 11 of AEK Athens FC's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AEK Athens FC goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–36%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: AEK Athens FC 2093 · Real Madrid 2493
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AEK Athens FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2219
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.0 (Good) · Elo 2565
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AEK Athens FC
4th in Super League 1 · 14 pts from 6
- 14 OctLShakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League2104
- 10 OctWOFI Greece Super League2078
- 20 SepWVolos NFC Greece Super League2039
- 13 SepDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League2063
- 8 SepWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2092
Real Madrid
3rd in La Liga · 21 pts from 9
- 18 OctWSevilla La Liga2464
- 14 OctWAS Roma UEFA Champions League2471
- 10 OctWVillarreal La Liga2449
- 20 SepLAtletico Madrid La Liga2494
- 15 SepWElche La Liga2475
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 3 /2 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 34.0 | 65.3 |
| Real Madrid | 6 /2 | 18.3 | 85.8 | 14.1 | 0.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AEK Athens FC: creative · possession-based (how Marko Nikolić plays) · Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mourinho plays)