Serie A · Regular Season - 12
AC Milan vs Frosinone
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC
AC Milan host Frosinone on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AC Milan 59%, draw 24%, Frosinone 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AC Milan €23.2M, Frosinone €6.3M.
- Serie A: M. Maignan is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2494).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AC Milan goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 3–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: AC Milan 2281 · Frosinone 2052
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AC Milan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2075
Frosinone · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2130
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AC Milan
4th in Serie A · 24 pts from 11
- 8 NovWGenoa Serie A2223
- 5 NovLFerencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League2189
- 31 OctWInter Serie A2244
- 28 OctLBologna Serie A2281
- 25 OctWUdinese Serie A2239
Frosinone
6th in Serie A · 20 pts from 11
- 7 NovLCagliari Serie A2095
- 1 NovWTorino Serie A2088
- 29 OctWLecce Serie A2065
- 25 OctDAtalanta Serie A2082
- 16 OctWSassuolo Serie A2054
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 24 /11 | 72.4 | 4% | 58% | 0% | 5th |
| Frosinone | 20 /11 | 52.4 | 0% | 1% | <1% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Amorim plays) · Frosinone: balanced profile (how Massimiliano Alvini plays)