UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC
AC Milan host Ferencvarosi TC on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AC Milan 72%, draw 18%, Ferencvarosi TC 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AC Milan €23.9M, Ferencvarosi TC €1.5M.
- Draw chance 18%, below the UEFA Europa League average of 26% this round.
- Serie A: M. Maignan is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2480).
- NB I: D. Dibusz is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1983).
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AC Milan goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- 1–08%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.1 pts
Team Elo: AC Milan 2253 · Ferencvarosi TC 1910
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AC Milan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2347
Ferencvarosi TC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2057
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AC Milan
4th in Serie A · 15 pts from 7
- 22 OctLBournemouth UEFA Europa League2255
- 18 OctWAtalanta Serie A2271
- 15 OctWRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League2173
- 11 OctDSassuolo Serie A2301
- 20 SepWLecce Serie A2243
Ferencvarosi TC
5th in NB I · 14 pts from 9
- 22 OctWTorreense UEFA Europa League1867
- 18 OctDKisvarda FC NB I1903
- 15 OctWPlzen UEFA Europa League1932
- 10 OctDDebreceni VSC NB I1920
- 20 SepDNyiregyhaza NB I1906
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 3 /3 | 13.5 | 28.0 | 69.6 | 2.4 |
| Ferencvarosi TC | 9 /3 | 14.3 | 31.0 | 68.5 | 0.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Amorim plays) · Ferencvarosi TC: possession-based (how Balazs Borbely plays)