Serie A · Regular Season - 9
AC Milan vs Bologna
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC
AC Milan host Bologna on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AC Milan 52%, draw 26%, Bologna 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AC Milan €25.9M, Bologna €10.0M.
- Serie A: M. Maignan is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2486).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Serie A): AC Milan rank #19 of 20, Bologna #3.
- All 11 of Bologna's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AC Milan goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: AC Milan 2264 · Bologna 2109
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AC Milan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2354
Bologna · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.3 (Good) · Elo 2181
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AC Milan
4th in Serie A · 15 pts from 7
- 18 OctWAtalanta Serie A2271
- 15 OctWRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League2173
- 11 OctDSassuolo Serie A2301
- 20 SepWLecce Serie A2243
- 16 SepLBenfica UEFA Europa League2194
Bologna
14th in Serie A · 5 pts from 7
- 17 OctLInter Serie A2100
- 11 OctWLecce Serie A2107
- 19 SepDTorino Serie A2114
- 13 SepLNapoli Serie A2102
- 6 SepDSassuolo Serie A2125
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 15 /7 | 69.3 | 5% | 57% | 0% | 3rd |
| Bologna | 5 /7 | 47.9 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Filipe Marques Diogo Amorim plays) · Bologna: balanced profile (how Domenico Tedesco plays)