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Serie A · Regular Season - 7

AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

AC Milan crestAC MilanTeam 2215
3–2
Full time
HT 2–0
Atalanta crestAtalantaTeam 2166

Match story

AC Milan · draw · Atalanta

Before kick-off: 42% · 29% · 30%

Live chances: AC Milan 98%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0% at 90+5'3' · 0–0 · AC Milan 42%, draw 29%, Atalanta 30%4' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 29%, Atalanta 30%5' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 29%, Atalanta 29%6' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 29%, Atalanta 29%7' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 29%, Atalanta 29%9' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 30%, Atalanta 29%10' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 30%, Atalanta 29%11' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 30%, Atalanta 29%13' · 0–0 · AC Milan 41%, draw 30%, Atalanta 29%14' · 1–0 · AC Milan 67%, draw 21%, Atalanta 12%15' · 0–0 · AC Milan 40%, draw 30%, Atalanta 29%16' · 0–0 · AC Milan 40%, draw 31%, Atalanta 29%17' · 0–0 · AC Milan 40%, draw 31%, Atalanta 29%18' · 0–0 · AC Milan 40%, draw 31%, Atalanta 29%19' · 0–0 · AC Milan 40%, draw 31%, Atalanta 29%20' · 0–0 · AC Milan 40%, draw 31%, Atalanta 29%21' · 0–0 · AC Milan 40%, draw 31%, Atalanta 29%22' · 0–0 · AC Milan 39%, draw 32%, Atalanta 29%23' · 0–0 · AC Milan 39%, draw 32%, Atalanta 29%24' · 1–0 · AC Milan 68%, draw 21%, Atalanta 11%26' · 1–0 · AC Milan 68%, draw 21%, Atalanta 11%27' · 1–0 · AC Milan 68%, draw 21%, Atalanta 11%28' · 1–0 · AC Milan 68%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%30' · 1–0 · AC Milan 68%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%31' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%32' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%33' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%34' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%35' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%36' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 10%37' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 9%38' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 9%39' · 1–0 · AC Milan 69%, draw 21%, Atalanta 9%40' · 1–0 · AC Milan 70%, draw 21%, Atalanta 9%41' · 1–0 · AC Milan 70%, draw 21%, Atalanta 9%42' · 1–0 · AC Milan 70%, draw 21%, Atalanta 9%43' · 1–0 · AC Milan 70%, draw 21%, Atalanta 9%44' · 2–0 · AC Milan 92%, draw 6%, Atalanta 2%45' · 2–0 · AC Milan 92%, draw 6%, Atalanta 2%45+1' · 2–0 · AC Milan 92%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%45+2' · 2–0 · AC Milan 92%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%45+3' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%45+4' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%HT · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%46' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%47' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%48' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%49' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%50' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 6%, Atalanta 1%51' · 2–0 · AC Milan 93%, draw 5%, Atalanta 1%52' · 2–0 · AC Milan 94%, draw 5%, Atalanta 1%53' · 2–0 · AC Milan 94%, draw 5%, Atalanta 1%54' · 2–0 · AC Milan 94%, draw 5%, Atalanta 1%55' · 2–0 · AC Milan 94%, draw 5%, Atalanta 1%56' · 2–0 · AC Milan 94%, draw 5%, Atalanta 1%57' · 2–0 · AC Milan 94%, draw 5%, Atalanta 1%58' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%59' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%60' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%61' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%62' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%63' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%64' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%65' · 3–0 · AC Milan 99%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%66' · 3–1 · AC Milan 96%, draw 4%, Atalanta 0%67' · 3–1 · AC Milan 96%, draw 3%, Atalanta 0%68' · 3–1 · AC Milan 96%, draw 3%, Atalanta 0%69' · 3–1 · AC Milan 96%, draw 3%, Atalanta 0%70' · 3–1 · AC Milan 97%, draw 3%, Atalanta 0%71' · 3–1 · AC Milan 97%, draw 3%, Atalanta 0%72' · 3–1 · AC Milan 97%, draw 3%, Atalanta 0%73' · 3–1 · AC Milan 97%, draw 3%, Atalanta 0%74' · 3–1 · AC Milan 97%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%75' · 3–1 · AC Milan 97%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%76' · 3–1 · AC Milan 98%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%77' · 3–1 · AC Milan 98%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%78' · 3–1 · AC Milan 98%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%79' · 3–1 · AC Milan 98%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%80' · 3–1 · AC Milan 98%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%81' · 3–1 · AC Milan 98%, draw 1%, Atalanta 0%82' · 3–2 · AC Milan 84%, draw 14%, Atalanta 2%83' · 3–2 · AC Milan 85%, draw 14%, Atalanta 1%84' · 3–2 · AC Milan 86%, draw 13%, Atalanta 1%85' · 3–2 · AC Milan 87%, draw 12%, Atalanta 1%86' · 3–2 · AC Milan 87%, draw 12%, Atalanta 1%87' · 3–2 · AC Milan 88%, draw 11%, Atalanta 1%88' · 3–2 · AC Milan 89%, draw 10%, Atalanta 1%89' · 3–2 · AC Milan 90%, draw 9%, Atalanta 1%90' · 3–2 · AC Milan 91%, draw 8%, Atalanta 0%90+1' · 3–2 · AC Milan 92%, draw 7%, Atalanta 0%90+2' · 3–2 · AC Milan 94%, draw 6%, Atalanta 0%90+3' · 3–2 · AC Milan 95%, draw 5%, Atalanta 0%90+4' · 3–2 · AC Milan 96%, draw 4%, Atalanta 0%90+5' · 3–2 · AC Milan 98%, draw 2%, Atalanta 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 98% · 2% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave AC Milan 42% to win: they did.

  1. 20'Atalanta:Relja Obric 1841 −8* for Sead Kolašinac 2170 −5
  2. 24'AC Milan:Gonçalo Ramos 2496 +23 (pen.)
  3. 41'AC Milan:Adrien Rabiot 2354 +35
  4. 43'AC Milan:Adrien Rabiot 2354 +35 assist Diego Moreira 2289 +47
  5. 53'AC Milan:Omari Hutchinson 2317 +17 for Samuel Chukwueze 2265 +10
  6. 57'AC Milan:Gonçalo Ramos 2496 +23 (penalty missed)
  7. 57'AC Milan:Mario Gila 2312 +41 assist Adrien Rabiot 2354 +35
  8. 59'Atalanta:Gianluca Gaetano 2137 −1 for Mario Pašalić 2115 −4
  9. 59'Atalanta:Nicola Zalewski 2286 −3 for Jonathan Rowe 2102 0
  10. 66'Atalanta:Gianluca Gaetano 2137 −1 assist Nicola Zalewski 2286 −3
  11. 68'Atalanta:Éderson José dos Santos 2191 −4
  12. 75'Atalanta:Gianluca Scamacca 2236 −2 for Lazar Samardzic 2176 −2
  13. 75'Atalanta:Davide Zappacosta 2149 −7 for Lorenzo Bernasconi 2011 0
  14. 75'AC Milan:Ardon Jashari 2328 +2 for Christian Pulisic 2278 +13
  15. 75'AC Milan:Pervis Estupinan 2250 +2 for Yunus Musah 2231 +16
  16. 75'AC Milan:Ruben Loftus-Cheek 2196 +1 for Luka Modrić 1923 +11
  17. 78'Atalanta:Relja Obric 1841 −8*
  18. 81'Atalanta:Nikola Krstović 2208 −13 assist Raoul Bellanova 2207 −12
  19. 84'AC Milan:Fikayo Tomori 2367 0 for Mario Gila 2312 +41

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-3Formations4-3-3
GM. Maignan2486+8
DMario Gila2312+41
DK. De Winter2315+16
DS. Pavlović2343+15
MS. Chukwueze2265+10
MY. Musah2231+16
ML. Modrić1923+11
MDiego Moreira2289+47
FA. Rabiot2354+35
FGonçalo Ramos2496+23
FC. Pulišić2278+13
CRuben Amorim2356+26
GM. Carnesecchi2234−6
DR. Bellanova2207−12
DT. Kristensen21280
DS. Kolašinac2170−5
DL. Bernasconi20110
ML. Samardžić2176−2
MÉderson2191−4
MMario Pasalic2115−4
FC. De Ketelaere2325−10
FN. Krstović2208−13
FJ. Rowe21020
CM. Sarri2182−5
Before kick-off: 42% · 29% · 30%(AC Milan · draw · Atalanta)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–2 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: AC Milan €24.2M, Atalanta €16.2M.
  • Atalanta were without 3 expected starters: G. Scalvini (2278), O. Kossounou (2222) and F. Kessié (2243).
  • Serie A: M. Maignan was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2478).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

AC Milan

6th in Serie A · 12 pts from 6

  • 15 OctWRed Bull Salzburg 2173
  • 11 OctDSassuolo 2301
  • 20 SepWLecce 2243
  • 16 SepLBenfica 2194
  • 12 SepDLazio 2199

Atalanta

10th in Serie A · 9 pts from 6

  • 15 OctWPafos 2168
  • 12 OctWVenezia 2195
  • 20 SepLJuventus 2179
  • 12 SepLCagliari 2221
  • 5 SepLAS Roma 2232

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
AC Milan12 /667.94%53%0%3rd
Atalanta9 /660.0<1%15%0%7th
AC Milan
Atalanta

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

A. Rabiot
A. Rabiot

AC Milan · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2319

C. De Ketelaere
C. De Ketelaere

Atalanta · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2335

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Ruben Filipe Marques Diogo Amorim

Coach DNA: possession-based · creative

Maurizio Sarri

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Filipe Marques Diogo Amorim plays) · Atalanta: creative (how Maurizio Sarri plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.