UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
Aarhus vs SC Braga
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Cepheus Park, Randers
Aarhus host SC Braga on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aarhus 27%, draw 28%, SC Braga 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aarhus €1.4M, SC Braga €5.3M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aarhus goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: Aarhus 1768 · SC Braga 2005
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aarhus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1879
SC Braga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1726
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aarhus
10th in Superliga · 9 pts from 11
- 22 OctDEgnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Conference League1750
- 18 OctDFC Copenhagen Denmark Superliga1765
- 15 OctLGent UEFA Conference League1687
- 12 OctWSonderjyske Denmark Superliga1767
- 20 SepDAC Horsens Denmark Superliga1753
SC Braga
9th in Primeira Liga · 11 pts from 8
- 22 OctWGent UEFA Conference League1964
- 19 OctLGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1957
- 15 OctLFC Copenhagen UEFA Conference League1977
- 9 OctLSporting CP Primeira Liga1964
- 20 SepDSanta Clara Primeira Liga1982
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 1 /2 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 57.5 | 41.0 |
| SC Braga | 3 /2 | 11.5 | 42.7 | 55.7 | 1.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aarhus: balanced profile (how J. Poulsen plays) · SC Braga: possession-based (how Carlos Vicens plays)