UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
1899 Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · SNP Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim host Sturm Graz on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: 1899 Hoffenheim 66%, draw 20%, Sturm Graz 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: 1899 Hoffenheim €15.9M, Sturm Graz €1.8M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. 1899 Hoffenheim goals first.
- 2–010%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.7 pts
Team Elo: 1899 Hoffenheim 2120 · Sturm Graz 1854
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
1899 Hoffenheim · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2215
Sturm Graz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1901
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
1899 Hoffenheim
9th in Bundesliga · 12 pts from 9
- 8 NovWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2146
- 5 NovDCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League2092
- 31 OctLWerder Bremen Bundesliga2082
- 28 OctDHolstein Kiel Germany DFB Pokal2091
- 25 OctWBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2112
Sturm Graz
5th in Bundesliga · 19 pts from 12
- 8 NovLRed Bull Salzburg Austrian Bundesliga1852
- 5 NovLCelje UEFA Europa League1870
- 1 NovDWolfsberger AC Austrian Bundesliga1856
- 25 OctDRied Austrian Bundesliga1880
- 22 OctWMarseille UEFA Europa League1854
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 /4 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 75.0 | 19.7 |
| Sturm Graz | 4 /4 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 27.1 | 72.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
1899 Hoffenheim: balanced profile (how Christian Ilzer plays) · Sturm Graz: balanced profile (how Fabio Ingolitsch plays)