UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Prezero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim host Lyon on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: 1899 Hoffenheim 41%, draw 29%, Lyon 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: 1899 Hoffenheim €12.8M, Lyon €11.8M.
- Home advantage makes 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. 1899 Hoffenheim goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: 1899 Hoffenheim 2082 · Lyon 2118
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
1899 Hoffenheim · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2160
Lyon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2231
Absences
1899 Hoffenheim
Ruled out
- A. HajdariFoot Injury2213
- P. WimmerThigh Injury2112
- Nathan De CatKnee Injury1872
Lyon
Ruled out
- L. OpendaLeg Injury2163
- N. TagliaficoKnee Injury2072
- M. OuédraogoKnee Injury1723
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
1899 Hoffenheim
14th in Bundesliga · 6 pts from 6
- 18 OctWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2082
- 15 OctLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League2083
- 10 OctLHamburger SV Bundesliga2103
- 20 SepLSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2076
- 17 SepLOFI UEFA Europa League2107
Lyon
1st in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 18 OctWNice Ligue 12075
- 15 OctWCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League2121
- 9 OctLLens Ligue 12146
- 19 SepWRennes Ligue 12110
- 16 SepWAnderlecht UEFA Europa League2040
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 /2 | 8.9 | 2.0 | 54.8 | 43.2 |
| Lyon | 6 /2 | 15.5 | 50.2 | 49.0 | 0.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
1899 Hoffenheim: balanced profile (how Christian Ilzer plays) · Lyon: possession-based (how Paulo Alexandre Rodrigues Fonseca plays)