World Cup 2026 Simulation
USA / Canada / Mexico · June 11 - July 19, 2026
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using PlayerElo squad ratings and the Davidson 3-way probability model.
All 48 teams confirmed. UEFA playoffs decided March 31, 2026 (Bosnia, Sweden, Türkiye, Czech Republic). Inter-confederation playoffs decided March 31, 2026 (Iraq, Congo DR).
Tournament Favourites
World Cup Flow
How each team's title chance has moved over the tournament — updated daily. Contenders are coloured; faint grey lines are the rest of the field.
Predicted Bracket
Most likely path based on Elo ratings — the predicted winner of each tie advances. Once a tie is played, the team that actually advanced is shown in green (even if it wasn't the favourite).
Group Stage Final Standings
Group A
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 2052 | 9 | 100% |
| South Africa | 1608 | 4 | 100% |
| Korea Republic | 1920 | 3 | 0% |
| Czech Republic | 1881 | 1 | 0% |
Group B
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 2008 | 7 | 100% |
| Canada | 1941 | 4 | 100% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1783 | 4 | 100% |
| Qatar | 1671 | 1 | 0% |
Group D
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 2033 | 6 | 100% |
| Paraguay | 1842 | 4 | 100% |
| Australia | 1708 | 4 | 100% |
| Türkiye | 2103 | 3 | 0% |
Group E
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2246 | 6 | 100% |
| Ivory Coast | 2052 | 6 | 100% |
| Ecuador | 1908 | 4 | 100% |
| Curaçao | 1618 | 1 | 0% |
Group F
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2153 | 7 | 100% |
| Japan | 1950 | 5 | 100% |
| Sweden | 2025 | 4 | 100% |
| Tunisia | 1599 | 0 | 0% |
Group G
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 2150 | 5 | 100% |
| Egypt | 1710 | 5 | 100% |
| Iran | 1738 | 3 | 0% |
| New Zealand | 1659 | 1 | 0% |
Group H
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2338 | 7 | 100% |
| Cape Verde | 1648 | 3 | 100% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2038 | 2 | 0% |
| Uruguay | 2046 | 2 | 0% |
Group K
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 2043 | 7 | 100% |
| Portugal | 2277 | 5 | 100% |
| Congo DR | 1835 | 4 | 100% |
| Uzbekistan | 1603 | 0 | 0% |
Probabilities update daily as Elo ratings change. During the tournament, predictions will update after every match.
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