World Cup 2026 — Final Results
USA / Canada / Mexico · June 11 - July 19, 2026
The tournament is over — this page is a frozen archive of the final results and is no longer updated. Throughout, squad strength was rated with PlayerElo squad Elo and a Davidson 3-way probability model.
How the Title Race Evolved
Each team's modelled title chance across the tournament, from an open group stage to Spain at 100%. Contenders are coloured; faint grey lines are the rest of the field.
Final Bracket
The knockout results. Green marks the team that advanced at each round; the Elo-favoured pick is in bold, so a team that is green but not bold was an upset.
Group Stage Final Standings
Group A
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 2054 | 9 | 100% |
| South Africa | 1630 | 4 | 100% |
| Korea Republic | 1929 | 3 | 0% |
| Czech Republic | 1875 | 1 | 0% |
Group B
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 2004 | 7 | 100% |
| Canada | 1941 | 4 | 100% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1789 | 4 | 100% |
| Qatar | 1662 | 1 | 0% |
Group D
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 2042 | 6 | 100% |
| Paraguay | 1839 | 4 | 100% |
| Australia | 1722 | 4 | 100% |
| Türkiye | 2101 | 3 | 0% |
Group E
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2250 | 6 | 100% |
| Ivory Coast | 2033 | 6 | 100% |
| Ecuador | 1905 | 4 | 100% |
| Curaçao | 1617 | 1 | 0% |
Group F
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2154 | 7 | 100% |
| Japan | 1940 | 5 | 100% |
| Sweden | 2031 | 4 | 100% |
| Tunisia | 1609 | 0 | 0% |
Group G
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 2136 | 5 | 100% |
| Egypt | 1701 | 5 | 100% |
| Iran | 1734 | 3 | 0% |
| New Zealand | 1647 | 1 | 0% |
Group H
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2363 | 7 | 100% |
| Cape Verde | 1647 | 3 | 100% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2040 | 2 | 0% |
| Uruguay | 2046 | 2 | 0% |
Group K
| Team | Elo | Pts | Adv% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 2046 | 7 | 100% |
| Portugal | 2268 | 5 | 100% |
| Congo DR | 1832 | 4 | 100% |
| Uzbekistan | 1591 | 0 | 0% |
Probabilities update daily as Elo ratings change. During the tournament, predictions will update after every match.
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