Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 15
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UTC · KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin host Gornik Zabrze on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Zaglebie Lubin 27%, draw 28%, Gornik Zabrze 44%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Zaglebie Lubin €569K, Gornik Zabrze €1.3M.
- Style contrast in possession (Ekstraklasa): Zaglebie Lubin rank #18 of 20, Gornik Zabrze #2.
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Zaglebie Lubin goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–111%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 0–28%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Zaglebie Lubin 1671 · Gornik Zabrze 1881
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Zaglebie Lubin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1787
Gornik Zabrze · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 1967
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Zaglebie Lubin
6th in Ekstraklasa · 23 pts from 14
- 8 NovDLech Poznan Ekstraklasa1692
- 2 NovWKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1544
- 23 OctDMotor Lublin Ekstraklasa1675
- 18 OctWJagiellonia Ekstraklasa1682
- 10 OctLCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1697
Gornik Zabrze
2nd in Ekstraklasa · 31 pts from 14
- 7 NovWWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa1881
- 30 OctDLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1909
- 23 OctDWidzew Łódź Ekstraklasa1886
- 18 OctDPiast Gliwice Ekstraklasa1909
- 10 OctWJagiellonia Ekstraklasa1858
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | 23 /14 | 47.0 | 0% | 8% | 2% | 8th |
| Gornik Zabrze | 31 /14 | 65.2 | 26% | 97% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Zaglebie Lubin: direct (how Leszek Ojrzynski plays) · Gornik Zabrze: possession-based (how Michal Gašparík plays)