Premier League · First Stage - Play Out - 13
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Gzira United
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Zabbar St. Patrick host Gzira United on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Zabbar St. Patrick 41%, draw 29%, Gzira United 30%.
- Home advantage makes Zabbar St. Patrick the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- I. Colombo, J. Micallef, A. Majok, Z. Leonardi, K. Scicluna, N. Agius and B. Figueiredo (Zabbar St. Patrick) have not played for over 90 days.
- D. Abela, Unknown (549705), C. N'Sa, Unknown (531356), M. Stojanovic, Unknown (549775), J. Bonilla, Kante and Andre Carlos (Gzira United) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Zabbar St. Patrick goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Zabbar St. Patrick 1244 · Gzira United 1244
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Zabbar St. Patrick from last season's line-ups (latest 5 May 2026); Gzira United from last season's line-ups (latest 14 March 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gzira United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Poor) · Elo 1247
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Zabbar St. Patrick
8th in Premier League · 14 pts from 11
- 5 MayLTarxien Rainbows Malta Premier League1262
- 15 MarDTarxien Rainbows Malta Premier League1282
- 7 MarWMosta Malta Premier League1247
- 28 FebDGzira United Malta Premier League1245
- 21 FebWBirkirkara Malta Premier League1214
Gzira United
12th in Premier League · 5 pts from 11
- 14 MarLSliema Wanderers Malta Premier League1280
- 7 MarWHibernians Malta Premier League1289
- 28 FebDZabbar St. Patrick Malta Premier League1254
- 22 FebWMosta Malta Premier League1283
- 17 FebLNaxxar Lions Malta Premier League1198
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zabbar St. Patrick | 14 /11 | 20.0 | 0% | 8% | 22% | 9th |
| Gzira United | 5 /11 | 11.3 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –